{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a6cae18-e598-4a4d-8b26-2ff3dd8de6b6", "symbol": "002398", "name": "Lets Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.225, "architecture_energy": 51.615, "architecture_maturity": 95.797, "architecture_confidence": 70.656, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.76, "rotation_up": 27.31, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 48.83, "downward_expansion": 73.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.907333, 3.893606, 4.148924, 4.438754 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.09, "trend_reference": 4.857888, "distance_from_trend": -0.15807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.679829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.063079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.304422, "excess_performance": -0.311822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170651, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.41433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87070298, "relative_activity": 1.710733, "balance": 0.41433, "dry_up": 1.397827, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07082, "annualized_volatility": 0.251322, "from_high_reference": -0.433518, "from_low_reference": 0.136111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.857888, "fair_value_reference": 4.679829, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.008147, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": 0.004652, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.179487, "worst_return": -0.279261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.037838, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.028611, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.197161, "worst_return": -0.20259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006431, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001831, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.119469, "worst_return": -0.19898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.953608, "energy": 83.530479, "activity_lines": [ 3.815333, 3.973652, 4.333305, 4.647119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.66, "volume": 69567032, "typical_volume": 49404804.15, "trend": 4.980221, "fair_value": 4.698603, "relative_strength": -30.205501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.90293, "energy": 70.649176, "activity_lines": [ 3.754, 3.885854, 4.239845, 4.557406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.96, "volume": 63394498, "typical_volume": 49548999.55, "trend": 4.908888, "fair_value": 4.688923, "relative_strength": -22.376774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.796683, "energy": 64.897872, "activity_lines": [ 3.814667, 3.871532, 4.184384, 4.491585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.09, "volume": 87070298, "typical_volume": 50896475.9, "trend": 4.857888, "fair_value": 4.679829, "relative_strength": -23.063079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.224861, "energy": 51.61508, "activity_lines": [ 3.907333, 3.893606, 4.148924, 4.438754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }