{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a712c4a-4f43-49dd-b840-91fb7675cdcf", "symbol": "FXL", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 SHS FIRST TRUST TECHNOLOGY ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.75, "architecture_energy": 29.625, "architecture_maturity": 62.918, "architecture_confidence": 86.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.75, "rotation_up": 31.69, "upward_expansion": 55.7, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 26.58, "downward_expansion": 19.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 204.795333, 205.124909, 202.457731, 194.862503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 216.75, "trend_reference": 185.803673, "distance_from_trend": 0.166554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.907809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.886718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.281947, "excess_performance": 0.156323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166554, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088867, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.281947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140908, "relative_activity": 0.26053, "balance": 0.129952, "dry_up": 0.829575, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059087, "annualized_volatility": 0.24709, "from_high_reference": -0.033229, "from_low_reference": 0.429608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 185.803673, "fair_value_reference": 149.907809, "structural_low": 151.615, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026752, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.007077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.104392, "worst_return": -0.039041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045255, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012467, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150245, "worst_return": -0.155807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069561, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01858, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.235059, "worst_return": 0.045576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 525323.6, "trend": 183.357673, "fair_value": 148.681906, "relative_strength": 3.369214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.113622, "energy": 23.204893, "activity_lines": [ 200.361333, 204.175818, 199.234187, 191.700675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.0, "volume": 296457, "typical_volume": 537733.25, "trend": 184.384007, "fair_value": 149.230801, "relative_strength": 4.23131, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.776537, "energy": 21.378499, "activity_lines": [ 199.548667, 203.107727, 200.143126, 192.774374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.75, "volume": 140908, "typical_volume": 540851.0, "trend": 185.803673, "fair_value": 149.907809, "relative_strength": 8.886718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.750087, "energy": 29.624622, "activity_lines": [ 204.795333, 205.124909, 202.457731, 194.862503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }