{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a74add5-04fd-473b-918c-263e9c6acdbc", "symbol": "IEEM", "name": "iShares MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.88, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.109, "architecture_energy": 23.689, "architecture_maturity": 64.987, "architecture_confidence": 77.634, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 17.7, "upward_expansion": 52.16, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 20.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.089333, 57.025967, 56.879201, 55.593895 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.619999, "trend_reference": 53.932103, "distance_from_trend": 0.049839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.508058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.892737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120454, "excess_performance": -0.050438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77208, "relative_activity": 0.975939, "balance": 0.682439, "dry_up": 0.915237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043638, "annualized_volatility": 0.225565, "from_high_reference": -0.076948, "from_low_reference": 0.358239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.932103, "fair_value_reference": 41.508058, "structural_low": 47.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023117, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.016894, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.127928, "worst_return": -0.018068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059516, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.024175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232636, "worst_return": -0.003031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106897, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330451, "worst_return": 4e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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55.970001, "volume": 45877, "typical_volume": 83158.2, "trend": 53.416242, "fair_value": 41.222298, "relative_strength": -0.297739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.612485, "energy": 23.17124, "activity_lines": [ 56.8, 57.683056, 56.70367, 55.272095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.459999, "volume": 60908, "typical_volume": 81942.8, "trend": 53.675862, "fair_value": 41.358671, "relative_strength": -1.973796, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.046262, "energy": 23.734369, "activity_lines": [ 56.136, 57.239392, 56.74991, 55.403951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.619999, "volume": 77208, "typical_volume": 79111.5, "trend": 53.932103, "fair_value": 41.508058, "relative_strength": -2.892737, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.109466, "energy": 23.688916, "activity_lines": [ 56.089333, 57.025967, 56.879201, 55.593895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }