{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a761cb0-eaf0-4696-9c43-5b9fd22c213f", "symbol": "CFOD", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials -2x Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.033, "architecture_energy": 68.131, "architecture_maturity": 89.363, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.27, "rotation_down": 59.45, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.790667, 10.991455, 11.980476, 13.146989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.77, "trend_reference": 14.534333, "distance_from_trend": -0.258996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.106346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.674685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.123055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359691, "excess_performance": -0.480112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.258996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.674685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.441231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.467576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44000, "relative_activity": 0.559405, "balance": 0.467576, "dry_up": 1.170619, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054782, "annualized_volatility": 0.28221, "from_high_reference": -0.563968, "from_low_reference": 0.036574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.534333, "fair_value_reference": 33.106346, "structural_low": 10.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.033398, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.045034, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.21135, "worst_return": -0.146099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.090202, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.138496, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.233954, "worst_return": -0.202032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.230862, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.291034, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.252101, "worst_return": -0.355595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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14.245204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.57, "volume": 103800, "typical_volume": 82615.0, "trend": 15.128667, "fair_value": 33.938782, "relative_strength": -46.834948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.303656, "energy": 93.942965, "activity_lines": [ 10.930667, 11.517818, 12.859857, 13.936925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 153500, "typical_volume": 87785.0, "trend": 14.929667, "fair_value": 33.667628, "relative_strength": -43.765881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.465465, "energy": 87.915578, "activity_lines": [ 10.896667, 11.318364, 12.547476, 13.670559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.77, "volume": 67000, "typical_volume": 86820.0, "trend": 14.725667, "fair_value": 33.386346, "relative_strength": -43.50115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.446493, "energy": 81.544466, "activity_lines": [ 10.821333, 11.133455, 12.245619, 13.402194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.77, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 78655.0, "trend": 14.534333, "fair_value": 33.106346, "relative_strength": -44.123055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.032785, "energy": 68.130716, "activity_lines": [ 10.790667, 10.991455, 11.980476, 13.146989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }