{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a7d2ac4-3313-4959-beba-23439091ae80", "symbol": "MGPI", "name": "MGP Ingredients Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.59, "architecture_energy": 17.053, "architecture_maturity": 89.905, "architecture_confidence": 65.374, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.6, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 17.73, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 21.02, "downward_expansion": 51.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.62, 17.377273, 17.611287, 18.12536 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.53, "trend_reference": 19.359923, "distance_from_trend": -0.094521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.295129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.651457, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.620544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.323801, "excess_performance": -0.511254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.651457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 994371, "relative_activity": 0.990605, "balance": 0.553615, "dry_up": 0.884195, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085325, "annualized_volatility": 0.518484, "from_high_reference": -0.416702, "from_low_reference": 0.11514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.359923, "fair_value_reference": 50.295129, "structural_low": 15.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00832, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013974, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.17957, "worst_return": -0.156412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.094772, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.143178, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.212622, "worst_return": -0.227313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.222028, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.383952, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.293911, "worst_return": -0.392891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 20.192363, "fair_value": 52.746199, "relative_strength": -36.304781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.833637, "energy": 42.625429, "activity_lines": [ 16.932667, 17.052203, 17.711145, 18.69268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.86, "volume": 931447, "typical_volume": 1132328.15, "trend": 19.998552, "fair_value": 52.162254, "relative_strength": -29.437161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.915543, "energy": 29.259999, "activity_lines": [ 17.278667, 17.133636, 17.696975, 18.542205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.69, "volume": 685109, "typical_volume": 1069133.7, "trend": 19.792496, "fair_value": 51.573397, "relative_strength": -27.857028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.959752, "energy": 22.40641, "activity_lines": [ 17.477333, 17.215273, 17.670852, 18.393267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.7, "volume": 939302, "typical_volume": 1040948.8, "trend": 19.590062, "fair_value": 50.94378, "relative_strength": -27.28305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.590155, "energy": 17.523463, "activity_lines": [ 17.596, 17.308545, 17.648991, 18.258267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.53, "volume": 994371, "typical_volume": 1003802.1, "trend": 19.359923, "fair_value": 50.295129, "relative_strength": -30.620544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.589539, "energy": 17.053102, "activity_lines": [ 17.62, 17.377273, 17.611287, 18.12536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }