{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a817aa3-6b09-4962-a3ff-7a9c77985e25", "symbol": "XLPP", "name": "Invesco Consumer Staples S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.018, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.081, "architecture_energy": 5.506, "architecture_maturity": 20.854, "architecture_confidence": 63.176, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.7, "rotation_up": 28.95, "upward_expansion": 50.19, "deceleration": 75.61, "rotation_down": 25.16, "downward_expansion": 23.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 56449.333333, 56560.181818, 56498.761905, 56502.634409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56200.0, "trend_reference": 56431.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.004093, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51826.769231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.997663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027177, "excess_performance": -0.078412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004093, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039149, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 892, "relative_activity": 0.816327, "balance": 0.419325, "dry_up": 1.515741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030434, "annualized_volatility": 0.157019, "from_high_reference": -0.060565, "from_low_reference": 0.10917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56431.0, "fair_value_reference": 51826.769231, "structural_low": 53958.515625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001518, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.000907, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.064227, "worst_return": -0.040422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022287, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003966, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.121272, "worst_return": -0.035606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02119, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121276, 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56616.333333, 56597.0, 56485.833333, 56480.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56570.0, "volume": 2136, "typical_volume": 1058.35, "trend": 56301.666667, "fair_value": 51767.144231, "relative_strength": -4.320884, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.375126, "energy": 7.888884, "activity_lines": [ 56555.666667, 56608.727273, 56507.238095, 56509.193548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56200.0, "volume": 892, "typical_volume": 1092.7, "trend": 56431.0, "fair_value": 51826.769231, "relative_strength": -4.997663, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.08146, "energy": 5.506125, "activity_lines": [ 56449.333333, 56560.181818, 56498.761905, 56502.634409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }