{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a861bb3-63b3-47c8-b625-bbe55ea5e0a3", "symbol": "XWEV", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Value ESG", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.86, "architecture_energy": 71.784, "architecture_maturity": 83.463, "architecture_confidence": 89.166, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.3, "rotation_up": 62.21, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.27, "rotation_down": 28.95, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.082, 52.707818, 51.580119, 50.078377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.560001, "trend_reference": 48.308334, "distance_from_trend": 0.129412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.819828, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.811794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195705, "excess_performance": 0.024813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038118, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.775388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16170, "relative_activity": 3.253227, "balance": 3.775388, "dry_up": 1.839572, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021127, "annualized_volatility": 0.14091, "from_high_reference": -0.000733, "from_low_reference": 0.436735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.308334, "fair_value_reference": 39.819828, "structural_low": 42.345001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022656, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000436, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.108991, "worst_return": -0.060533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.111195, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036821, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.130933, "worst_return": 0.091456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.234364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080294, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.234364, "worst_return": 0.234364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 52.52, "volume": 8555, "typical_volume": 5043.5, "trend": 47.716334, "fair_value": 39.580263, "relative_strength": 4.004081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.811179, "energy": 65.296311, "activity_lines": [ 52.322, 52.222364, 50.756357, 49.353355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.389999, "volume": 4710, "typical_volume": 4997.5, "trend": 47.995834, "fair_value": 39.691652, "relative_strength": 2.841843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.445331, "energy": 62.191071, "activity_lines": [ 52.345999, 52.279454, 51.084024, 49.654882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.560001, "volume": 16170, "typical_volume": 4970.45, "trend": 48.308334, "fair_value": 39.819828, "relative_strength": 3.811794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.860181, "energy": 71.784206, "activity_lines": [ 53.082, 52.707818, 51.580119, 50.078377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }