{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a870514-5147-41f4-856e-904779eb56bd", "symbol": "FRAG", "name": "Fragbite Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.162, "architecture_energy": 29.108, "architecture_maturity": 72.957, "architecture_confidence": 81.188, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.11, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 61.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.19, 5.078182, 5.469333, 5.881892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.5, "trend_reference": 6.411, "distance_from_trend": -0.1421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.453398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.128593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191176, "excess_performance": -0.252671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00224, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15447, "relative_activity": 1.277741, "balance": 1.00224, "dry_up": 0.81841, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135105, "annualized_volatility": 0.62148, "from_high_reference": -0.724311, "from_low_reference": 0.300236 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.411, "fair_value_reference": 4.453398, "structural_low": 4.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.007499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012715, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 393.594595, "worst_return": -0.779564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.144965, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.218462, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 313.0, "worst_return": -0.589324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.342437, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.365097, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 175.404494, "worst_return": -0.762395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4.966667, 5.349091, 6.040381, 6.364645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.69, "volume": 9853, "typical_volume": 16056.25, "trend": 6.598333, "fair_value": 4.328884, "relative_strength": -50.392789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.892302, "energy": 77.180235, "activity_lines": [ 4.816667, 5.161818, 5.872095, 6.237892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.04, "volume": 13375, "typical_volume": 15207.8, "trend": 6.563, "fair_value": 4.359483, "relative_strength": -45.297603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.309894, "energy": 63.125011, "activity_lines": [ 4.852, 5.080909, 5.744143, 6.137355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.06, "volume": 4806, "typical_volume": 12856.85, "trend": 6.538333, "fair_value": 4.389852, "relative_strength": -44.982521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.195003, "energy": 47.313995, "activity_lines": [ 4.940667, 5.032, 5.628952, 6.040387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 5948, "typical_volume": 12180.7, "trend": 6.518333, "fair_value": 4.420397, "relative_strength": -44.390576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.285964, "energy": 39.578173, "activity_lines": [ 5.015333, 5.012909, 5.524429, 5.947591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.5, "volume": 15447, "typical_volume": 12089.3, "trend": 6.411, "fair_value": 4.453398, "relative_strength": -40.128593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.162427, "energy": 29.108188, "activity_lines": [ 5.19, 5.078182, 5.469333, 5.881892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }