{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a8855b2-5e59-4fe2-91ad-80d5ff7183ce", "symbol": "300083", "name": "Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.023, "architecture_energy": 30.136, "architecture_maturity": 65.139, "architecture_confidence": 88.104, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.38, "rotation_up": 39.17, "upward_expansion": 64.4, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 27.92, "downward_expansion": 16.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.132, 12.133636, 11.442095, 10.735914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.48, "trend_reference": 10.032333, "distance_from_trend": 0.443333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.842179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.846425, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 42.529993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.623318, "excess_performance": 0.615919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.443333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.846425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.447569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.4253, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.486005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.623318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.91812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 604483736, "relative_activity": 1.438, "balance": 0.91812, "dry_up": 1.281099, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134881, "annualized_volatility": 0.805568, "from_high_reference": -0.04106, "from_low_reference": 1.016713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.032333, "fair_value_reference": 7.842179, "structural_low": 7.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.058303, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.001854, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.4858, "worst_return": -0.10101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032421, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.028037, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304933, "worst_return": -0.113653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057054, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.360239, "worst_return": -0.285609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 373809184.45, "trend": 9.780667, "fair_value": 7.743526, "relative_strength": 12.094843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.915068, "energy": 61.538433, "activity_lines": [ 12.368667, 11.880364, 10.918, 10.322602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.99, "volume": 479907476, "typical_volume": 387340501.65, "trend": 9.836333, "fair_value": 7.769551, "relative_strength": 13.121028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.653883, "energy": 39.098929, "activity_lines": [ 11.883333, 11.773818, 11.01181, 10.400624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.41, "volume": 473490731, "typical_volume": 398019913.15, "trend": 9.856667, "fair_value": 7.792372, "relative_strength": 8.735033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.759825, "energy": 19.4983, "activity_lines": [ 11.252, 11.578909, 11.037619, 10.437634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.48, "volume": 604483736, "typical_volume": 420364115.35, "trend": 10.032333, "fair_value": 7.842179, "relative_strength": 42.529993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.023404, "energy": 30.135676, "activity_lines": [ 12.132, 12.133636, 11.442095, 10.735914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }