{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a898bc4-e4de-49f4-905a-46ec76a6a035", "symbol": "XZME", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA ESG UCITS ETF 2C EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.187, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.699, "architecture_energy": 56.122, "architecture_maturity": 41.235, "architecture_confidence": 70.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.66, "rotation_up": 54.81, "upward_expansion": 81.28, "deceleration": 65.05, "rotation_down": 26.69, "downward_expansion": 7.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.09, 11.027818, 10.953986, 10.770415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.514, "trend_reference": 10.5928, "distance_from_trend": 0.086965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.0185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.192813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110318, "excess_performance": -0.060574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 45.28424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1381, "relative_activity": 0.030934, "balance": 45.28424, "dry_up": 0.14406, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019054, "annualized_volatility": 0.145358, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.233026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.5928, "fair_value_reference": 9.0185, "structural_low": 9.338, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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"typical_volume": 48924.6, "trend": 10.53, "fair_value": 8.914359, "relative_strength": -7.631406, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.619504, "energy": 48.216051, "activity_lines": [ 10.998933, 11.010836, 10.796338, 10.649185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.906, "volume": 3740, "typical_volume": 48281.65, "trend": 10.544533, "fair_value": 8.939468, "relative_strength": -7.63448, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.699043, "energy": 43.083363, "activity_lines": [ 10.972667, 10.990545, 10.830367, 10.673443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.702, "volume": 1136, "typical_volume": 45304.55, "trend": 10.548333, "fair_value": 8.962878, "relative_strength": -8.977235, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.204047, "energy": 32.775357, "activity_lines": [ 10.884, 10.934436, 10.84171, 10.683602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.944, "volume": 19468, "typical_volume": 45846.45, "trend": 10.564067, "fair_value": 8.9885, "relative_strength": -7.35991, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.079577, "energy": 29.151185, "activity_lines": [ 10.895733, 10.928145, 10.87329, 10.709129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.514, "volume": 1381, "typical_volume": 44642.75, "trend": 10.5928, "fair_value": 9.0185, "relative_strength": -5.192813, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.699199, "energy": 56.122345, "activity_lines": [ 11.09, 11.027818, 10.953986, 10.770415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }