{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a8c12c9-e85d-47b2-b2d6-3257a9460c66", "symbol": "SOIE", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Short WTI Oil ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.357, "architecture_energy": 60.524, "architecture_maturity": 88.065, "architecture_confidence": 72.732, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.23, "rotation_up": 11.52, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 64.81, "rotation_down": 68.36, "downward_expansion": 75.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7923, 0.904273, 0.89986, 1.103108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.819, "trend_reference": 1.630567, "distance_from_trend": -0.497721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.608583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.853974, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -74.720212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.768807, "excess_performance": -0.820043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.497721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.853974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.747202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.768807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5132, "relative_activity": 0.523858, "balance": 0.382193, "dry_up": 1.436347, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19212, "annualized_volatility": 1.31755, "from_high_reference": -0.844297, "from_low_reference": 0.3125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.630567, "fair_value_reference": 5.608583, "structural_low": 0.624, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.051095, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047063, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.444509, "worst_return": -0.590222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06016, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.027425, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.159979, "worst_return": -0.771066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.098452, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.196203, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.042804, "worst_return": -0.768807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8575, "volume": 751, "typical_volume": 9654.05, "trend": 2.014233, "fair_value": 5.762525, "relative_strength": -74.846351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.420545, "energy": 35.949238, "activity_lines": [ 1.070933, 1.011218, 0.969002, 1.323765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7035, "volume": 47801, "typical_volume": 12043.8, "trend": 1.886683, "fair_value": 5.708509, "relative_strength": -79.088694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.967557, "energy": 59.749807, "activity_lines": [ 0.9391, 0.968618, 0.936243, 1.239201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7075, "volume": 2601, "typical_volume": 9787.35, "trend": 1.749267, "fair_value": 5.657684, "relative_strength": -78.69522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.134663, "energy": 66.814603, "activity_lines": [ 0.829267, 0.926336, 0.911229, 1.163125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.819, "volume": 5132, "typical_volume": 9796.55, "trend": 1.630567, "fair_value": 5.608583, "relative_strength": -74.720212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.357315, "energy": 60.523634, "activity_lines": [ 0.7923, 0.904273, 0.89986, 1.103108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }