{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2a97bf08-0ef0-4682-8578-d31a58b0450d", "symbol": "TCH-F164", "name": "Tachlit Indices Limited", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.489, "architecture_energy": 66.528, "architecture_maturity": 79.161, "architecture_confidence": 94.199, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 55.78, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.56, 131.210909, 3050.317143, 4692.530323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 128.2, "trend_reference": 6449.636667, "distance_from_trend": -0.980123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6312.795513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.979692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.334669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.984981, "excess_performance": -1.013882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.980123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.979692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.768183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.983347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.121185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.984981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802348, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34814, "relative_activity": 1.048365, "balance": 0.802348, "dry_up": 1.333282, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.375795, "annualized_volatility": 6.332956, "from_high_reference": -0.990346, "from_low_reference": 0.141585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6449.636667, "fair_value_reference": 6312.795513, "structural_low": 112.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016285, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.034279, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153016, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010746, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.027149, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.136523, "worst_return": -0.101706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021512, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049336, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.331485, "worst_return": -0.040369, "sufficient": 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-70.051373, "energy": 87.904862, "activity_lines": [ 132.673333, 1457.805455, 4775.349048, 6019.312473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.2, "volume": 38578, "typical_volume": 32659.0, "trend": 6983.133333, "fair_value": 6371.224359, "relative_strength": -98.404172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.365396, "energy": 68.308921, "activity_lines": [ 130.853333, 802.7, 4161.178571, 5560.401075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.9, "volume": 51547, "typical_volume": 32679.55, "trend": 6721.963333, "fair_value": 6342.025, "relative_strength": -98.40758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.116307, "energy": 67.574906, "activity_lines": [ 128.08, 360.790909, 3585.797619, 5117.934409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.2, "volume": 34814, "typical_volume": 33207.9, "trend": 6449.636667, "fair_value": 6312.795513, "relative_strength": -98.334669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.489397, "energy": 66.527553, "activity_lines": [ 127.56, 131.210909, 3050.317143, 4692.530323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }