{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aa342e9-65f0-4bd7-bd8b-9b411f42b60e", "symbol": "ACR", "name": "Acres Commercial Realty Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.367, "architecture_energy": 59.906, "architecture_maturity": 30.055, "architecture_confidence": 86.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.45, "rotation_up": 15.11, "upward_expansion": 9.78, "deceleration": 43.48, "rotation_down": 66.24, "downward_expansion": 83.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.768, 17.216727, 18.201952, 18.563376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.13, "trend_reference": 18.928667, "distance_from_trend": -0.200683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.124424, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.361779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194784, "excess_performance": -0.320409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.432066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272784, "relative_activity": 1.989285, "balance": 0.432066, "dry_up": 1.121414, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106182, "annualized_volatility": 0.406805, "from_high_reference": -0.385209, "from_low_reference": 0.043448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.928667, "fair_value_reference": 16.124424, "structural_low": 14.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003378, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.008439, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.178195, "worst_return": -0.16314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035197, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003705, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.280761, "worst_return": -0.19727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022495, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002538, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.782895, "worst_return": -0.332423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11042, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106509, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182162, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.55, "volume": 48306, "typical_volume": 64365.95, "trend": 8.944, "fair_value": 11.377275, "relative_strength": -13.408968, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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19.745667, "fair_value": 15.863142, "relative_strength": -18.429981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.723642, "energy": 64.271999, "activity_lines": [ 17.893333, 18.602182, 19.196857, 19.309441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.32, "volume": 49101, "typical_volume": 129026.2, "trend": 19.532667, "fair_value": 15.917052, "relative_strength": -22.271163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.71097, "energy": 60.732095, "activity_lines": [ 17.687333, 18.228909, 19.009857, 19.152946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.8, "volume": 92517, "typical_volume": 128864.5, "trend": 19.352, "fair_value": 15.972949, "relative_strength": -18.631979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.975928, "energy": 39.17659, "activity_lines": [ 17.726, 18.025091, 18.874571, 19.041161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.65, "volume": 79988, "typical_volume": 127738.45, "trend": 19.218667, "fair_value": 16.02827, "relative_strength": -18.493505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.975173, "energy": 38.860868, "activity_lines": [ 17.727333, 17.881273, 18.728381, 18.931355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.5, "volume": 169814, "typical_volume": 131842.4, "trend": 19.115, "fair_value": 16.083334, "relative_strength": -19.643574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.349916, "energy": 38.628726, "activity_lines": [ 17.609333, 17.745091, 18.574429, 18.820473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.13, "volume": 272784, "typical_volume": 137126.65, "trend": 18.928667, "fair_value": 16.124424, "relative_strength": -32.361779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.366729, "energy": 59.906247, "activity_lines": [ 16.768, 17.216727, 18.201952, 18.563376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }