{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aa3fed4-6333-4f61-9517-6e6c4fc9c62d", "symbol": "C09", "name": "City Developments Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.972, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.307, "architecture_energy": 54.56, "architecture_maturity": 15.776, "architecture_confidence": 84.353, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 13.7, "upward_expansion": 9.44, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 64.75, "downward_expansion": 82.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.739333, 7.830364, 7.985507, 8.133574 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.78, "trend_reference": 8.385471, "distance_from_trend": -0.072205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.151475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.959143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162378, "excess_performance": -0.317213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6102500, "relative_activity": 0.865806, "balance": 0.937469, "dry_up": 0.993372, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044493, "annualized_volatility": 0.222295, "from_high_reference": -0.205546, "from_low_reference": 0.280248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.385471, "fair_value_reference": 6.151475, "structural_low": 7.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.007289, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.007062, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.1003, "worst_return": -0.112871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02029, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.034147, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.188597, "worst_return": -0.12574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.042023, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.066951, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.491075, "worst_return": -0.130198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.7, "volume": 7308400, "typical_volume": 8943704.0, "trend": 8.41908, "fair_value": 6.131185, "relative_strength": -14.187276, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.06337, "energy": 73.495216, "activity_lines": [ 7.865333, 8.026545, 8.108098, 8.271192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.48, "volume": 8167300, "typical_volume": 8090989.0, "trend": 8.410893, "fair_value": 6.135501, "relative_strength": -17.71116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.478815, "energy": 79.986007, "activity_lines": [ 7.714, 7.914, 8.040037, 8.210606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.85, "volume": 6428300, "typical_volume": 7725134.0, "trend": 8.413098, "fair_value": 6.142607, "relative_strength": -14.227757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.961074, "energy": 63.785659, "activity_lines": [ 7.738, 7.875636, 8.013929, 8.174419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.78, "volume": 6102500, "typical_volume": 7048342.2, "trend": 8.385471, "fair_value": 6.151475, "relative_strength": -15.959143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.306536, "energy": 54.560098, "activity_lines": [ 7.739333, 7.830364, 7.985507, 8.133574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }