{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aaa24f0-6fcd-4535-9070-dfe75f2bdc8a", "symbol": "VJPE", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.261, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.573, "architecture_energy": 30.457, "architecture_maturity": 62.214, "architecture_confidence": 85.571, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.81, "rotation_up": 35.26, "upward_expansion": 61.64, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.44, "downward_expansion": 20.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.861332, 72.140909, 71.236571, 69.951656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 73.169998, "trend_reference": 68.364667, "distance_from_trend": 0.07029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.706026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.443024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.0211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099639, "excess_performance": -0.071252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.443024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099639, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.263439, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11216, "relative_activity": 2.936741, "balance": 3.263439, "dry_up": 2.379818, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028921, "annualized_volatility": 0.194373, "from_high_reference": -0.014678, "from_low_reference": 0.384746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.364667, "fair_value_reference": 50.706026, "structural_low": 61.169998, "invalidation": "A 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"teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014611, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020007, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03049, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.520542, "energy": 53.30653, "activity_lines": [ 72.348668, 72.113091, 70.411048, 69.143291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.220001, "volume": 11586, "typical_volume": 3792.4, "trend": 67.722334, "fair_value": 50.252756, "relative_strength": 1.611113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.180882, "energy": 44.019009, "activity_lines": [ 72.164667, 72.221819, 70.753381, 69.458646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.239998, "volume": 2979, "typical_volume": 3757.3, "trend": 68.046, "fair_value": 50.47, "relative_strength": -1.976657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.170884, "energy": 29.264992, "activity_lines": [ 71.45, 71.917818, 70.870762, 69.621076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.169998, "volume": 11216, "typical_volume": 3819.2, "trend": 68.364667, "fair_value": 50.706026, "relative_strength": -1.0211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.573268, "energy": 30.457442, "activity_lines": [ 71.861332, 72.140909, 71.236571, 69.951656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }