{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aaafabd-0dab-4867-8705-6d7f2bd5af95", "symbol": "FHTX", "name": "Foghorn Therapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.655, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.059, "architecture_energy": 24.602, "architecture_maturity": 25.571, "architecture_confidence": 77.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.2, "rotation_up": 53.02, "upward_expansion": 40.13, "deceleration": 33.07, "rotation_down": 21.84, "downward_expansion": 17.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.29, 5.094909, 4.802381, 4.841204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.07, "trend_reference": 5.007, "distance_from_trend": 0.212303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.422051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119503, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.311831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068662, "excess_performance": -0.118792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212303, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34101, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073118, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.332993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.922726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1180508, "relative_activity": 1.164783, "balance": 1.922726, "dry_up": 1.108313, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14009, "annualized_volatility": 0.823224, "from_high_reference": -0.126619, "from_low_reference": 0.856269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.007, "fair_value_reference": 5.422051, "structural_low": 3.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017606, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.033844, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.100775, "worst_return": -0.219412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.102991, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.162559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088012, "worst_return": -0.442925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077168, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153101, "worst_return": -0.418319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.314112, 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"end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"direction": 33.70833, "energy": 30.447412, "activity_lines": [ 5.072667, 4.646182, 4.628571, 4.800624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.19, "volume": 1474589, "typical_volume": 1022581.1, "trend": 5.017, "fair_value": 5.502244, "relative_strength": -5.964682, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.243073, "energy": 28.165321, "activity_lines": [ 5.216, 4.785091, 4.670476, 4.811677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 986472, "typical_volume": 1035789.35, "trend": 4.998667, "fair_value": 5.475385, "relative_strength": -9.851728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.722141, "energy": 28.305606, "activity_lines": [ 5.178667, 4.848545, 4.682333, 4.800903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.53, "volume": 851534, "typical_volume": 1015843.15, "trend": 4.976667, "fair_value": 5.445385, "relative_strength": -15.753367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.467714, "energy": 16.594894, "activity_lines": [ 4.988, 4.834545, 4.668143, 4.770667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.07, "volume": 1180508, "typical_volume": 1013500.6, "trend": 5.007, "fair_value": 5.422051, "relative_strength": 7.311831, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.058572, "energy": 24.601689, "activity_lines": [ 5.29, 5.094909, 4.802381, 4.841204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }