{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ab18131-a4e4-450b-b309-5bf775a0b41e", "symbol": "M14", "name": "InnoTek Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.415, "architecture_energy": 84.454, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.803, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 9.73, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 81.28, "downward_expansion": 98.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.526, 0.565818, 0.634695, 0.663532 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.51, "trend_reference": 0.694498, "distance_from_trend": -0.265657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.488004, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.830551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314516, "excess_performance": -0.469351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.265657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030144, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.83419, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6812100, "relative_activity": 0.586525, "balance": 0.2836, "dry_up": 0.644877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139517, "annualized_volatility": 0.531122, "from_high_reference": -0.4684, "from_low_reference": 0.447133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.694498, "fair_value_reference": 0.488004, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.023257, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.017587, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.168421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043958, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.071782, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.275961, "worst_return": -0.233921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070588, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.086656, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.969418, "worst_return": -0.327553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097559, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.38298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", 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"typical_volume": 11540195.0, "trend": 0.709174, "fair_value": 0.484246, "relative_strength": -20.661373, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.424375, "energy": 52.644478, "activity_lines": [ 0.627667, 0.655, 0.700843, 0.70942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.535, "volume": 9646200, "typical_volume": 11585300.0, "trend": 0.705796, "fair_value": 0.485213, "relative_strength": -27.302673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.202225, "energy": 77.548214, "activity_lines": [ 0.593, 0.627364, 0.684095, 0.698183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.55, "volume": 6047700, "typical_volume": 11682100.0, "trend": 0.702919, "fair_value": 0.486276, "relative_strength": -26.242609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.732847, "energy": 79.035382, "activity_lines": [ 0.57, 0.608727, 0.669655, 0.688132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.51, "volume": 7453300, "typical_volume": 11813960.0, "trend": 0.698382, "fair_value": 0.48714, "relative_strength": -32.012742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.660734, "energy": 83.692462, "activity_lines": [ 0.543, 0.585727, 0.651909, 0.675685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.51, "volume": 6812100, "typical_volume": 11614340.0, "trend": 0.694498, "fair_value": 0.488004, "relative_strength": -32.830551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.415107, "energy": 84.454398, "activity_lines": [ 0.526, 0.565818, 0.634695, 0.663532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }