{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ac0a537-ab7c-4a99-a2b7-0f4e26c8dc2d", "symbol": "MLSRP", "name": "Speed Rabbit Pizza SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.449, "architecture_energy": 85.001, "architecture_maturity": 88.961, "architecture_confidence": 92.918, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 45.7, "downward_expansion": 75.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.4, 18.90619, 19.427957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.4, "trend_reference": 20.433333, "distance_from_trend": -0.099511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.783269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.961812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192982, "excess_performance": -0.246294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083288, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.066163, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009197, "annualized_volatility": 0.663307, "from_high_reference": -0.622951, "from_low_reference": 0.082353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.433333, "fair_value_reference": 17.783269, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004215, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.959799, "worst_return": -0.316981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.010753, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.070081, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.514286, "worst_return": -0.275862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.82069, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.724387, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.963964, "worst_return": -0.224599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.595797, "energy": 67.582554, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.890909, 19.560952, 20.553978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.1, "trend": 22.466667, "fair_value": 17.550897, "relative_strength": -38.085907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.73879, "energy": 70.997813, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.741818, 19.395714, 20.261935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.4, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 26.45, "trend": 22.006667, "fair_value": 17.602821, "relative_strength": -37.203695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.544311, "energy": 80.470077, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.596364, 19.247619, 19.99957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.45, "trend": 21.353333, "fair_value": 17.654744, "relative_strength": -36.488365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.683101, "energy": 85.303335, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.490909, 19.116667, 19.766882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.45, "trend": 20.7, "fair_value": 17.723333, "relative_strength": -36.451953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.823486, "energy": 85.963534, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.425455, 19.002857, 19.576344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.45, "trend": 20.433333, "fair_value": 17.783269, "relative_strength": -36.961812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.448765, "energy": 85.000656, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.4, 18.90619, 19.427957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }