{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ac25c63-bfe1-48cd-9e1d-3d227898cbc4", "symbol": "PQJA", "name": "PGIM NASDAQ-100 BUFFER 12 ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.552, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.0, "architecture_energy": 56.852, "architecture_maturity": 54.353, "architecture_confidence": 52.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.72, "rotation_up": 45.66, "upward_expansion": 78.12, "deceleration": 73.66, "rotation_down": 29.38, "downward_expansion": 9.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.569967, 31.510047, 31.333574, 30.841722 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.02, "trend_reference": 30.25135, "distance_from_trend": 0.058465, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.85983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.706858, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09829, "excess_performance": -0.089163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058465, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.845922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7428, "relative_activity": 0.250414, "balance": 1.845922, "dry_up": 0.338656, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013121, "annualized_volatility": 0.094402, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.180531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.25135, "fair_value_reference": 27.85983, "structural_low": 27.6559, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": 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"2026-06-26", "close": 31.3172, "volume": 22493, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.4122, "volume": 92114, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.71, "volume": 15842, "typical_volume": 31115.45, "trend": 29.949815, "fair_value": 27.678885, "relative_strength": -6.414778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.35068, "energy": 63.921945, "activity_lines": [ 31.527027, 31.484298, 30.960533, 30.475375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.34, "volume": 13334, "typical_volume": 30403.4, "trend": 30.026339, "fair_value": 27.724084, "relative_strength": -3.370589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.133519, "energy": 57.315807, "activity_lines": [ 31.472067, 31.465058, 31.057691, 30.565064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.1601, "volume": 12403, "typical_volume": 30057.8, "trend": 30.09306, "fair_value": 27.765987, "relative_strength": -2.267031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.191824, "energy": 48.310748, "activity_lines": [ 31.36214, 31.4122, 31.126813, 30.63821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.3948, "volume": 7017, "typical_volume": 29753.3, "trend": 30.167303, "fair_value": 27.809708, "relative_strength": -1.950459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.108036, "energy": 42.549034, "activity_lines": [ 31.36444, 31.40374, 31.20703, 30.722193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.02, "volume": 7428, "typical_volume": 29662.85, "trend": 30.25135, "fair_value": 27.85983, "relative_strength": -4.706858, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.999786, "energy": 56.852024, "activity_lines": [ 31.569967, 31.510047, 31.333574, 30.841722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }