{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ac9fdcc-4c5d-456e-ab62-66c7df0dd26f", "symbol": "605008", "name": "Ningbo Changhong Polymer Scientific and Technical Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.593, "architecture_energy": 11.908, "architecture_maturity": 28.657, "architecture_confidence": 75.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.46, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 24.65, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 24.81, "downward_expansion": 46.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.776667, 11.687091, 11.668143, 11.864624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.57, "trend_reference": 12.326, "distance_from_trend": -0.061334, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.748714, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.469277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181754, "excess_performance": -0.13855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.475398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13822111, "relative_activity": 1.393438, "balance": 0.475398, "dry_up": 1.449315, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070341, "annualized_volatility": 0.20887, "from_high_reference": -0.400518, "from_low_reference": 0.081308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.326, "fair_value_reference": 13.748714, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.046308, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.04053, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.288172, "worst_return": -0.121449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.103537, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.072733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042497, "worst_return": -0.182775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095747, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.089267, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.342742, "worst_return": -0.15073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03321, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132117, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.821106, "energy": 28.002751, "activity_lines": [ 11.554, 11.454727, 11.669857, 12.056065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.13, "volume": 19649780, "typical_volume": 9832293.0, "trend": 12.633333, "fair_value": 13.805245, "relative_strength": -8.880012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.034212, "energy": 17.958795, "activity_lines": [ 11.785333, 11.560545, 11.691714, 12.01714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.83, "volume": 11204524, "typical_volume": 9668889.3, "trend": 12.514667, "fair_value": 13.790512, "relative_strength": -11.724036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.512092, "energy": 20.667581, "activity_lines": [ 11.863333, 11.614545, 11.688619, 11.965312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.8, "volume": 12829080, "typical_volume": 9774870.3, "trend": 12.416, "fair_value": 13.770194, "relative_strength": -11.887238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.484171, "energy": 17.027647, "activity_lines": [ 11.880667, 11.670545, 11.687238, 11.919204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.57, "volume": 13822111, "typical_volume": 9919429.85, "trend": 12.326, "fair_value": 13.748714, "relative_strength": -15.469277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.592638, "energy": 11.9076, "activity_lines": [ 11.776667, 11.687091, 11.668143, 11.864624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }