{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aced96b-7492-4c63-8068-8db8c272e701", "symbol": "GLDM", "name": "WORLD GOLD TRUST SPDR GOLD MINISHARES TRUST(POST REV SPL)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.885, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.615, "architecture_energy": 42.596, "architecture_maturity": 54.126, "architecture_confidence": 68.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.45, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 66.32, "rotation_down": 49.79, "downward_expansion": 72.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.071333, 81.794364, 84.49381, 87.20428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 85.95, "trend_reference": 90.630667, "distance_from_trend": -0.051646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.044615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.59326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123496, "excess_performance": -0.249121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22834109, "relative_activity": 1.088459, "balance": 0.593792, "dry_up": 0.819857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046257, "annualized_volatility": 0.241946, "from_high_reference": -0.216785, "from_low_reference": 0.309515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.630667, "fair_value_reference": 62.044615, "structural_low": 78.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003659, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007781, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075391, "worst_return": -0.042087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038728, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002426, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164284, "worst_return": -0.040292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.117372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121689, "worst_return": 0.114969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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88.922387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.19, "volume": 14740851, "typical_volume": 22777536.25, "trend": 90.926667, "fair_value": 61.470192, "relative_strength": -12.661389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.311126, "energy": 68.284682, "activity_lines": [ 80.420667, 81.773091, 85.373524, 88.209226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.14, "volume": 18014184, "typical_volume": 22078411.7, "trend": 90.74, "fair_value": 61.737051, "relative_strength": -13.651566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.102388, "energy": 59.339433, "activity_lines": [ 80.262, 81.173091, 84.611429, 87.513312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.95, "volume": 22834109, "typical_volume": 20978385.45, "trend": 90.630667, "fair_value": 62.044615, "relative_strength": -10.59326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.615447, "energy": 42.596143, "activity_lines": [ 82.071333, 81.794364, 84.49381, 87.20428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }