{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ae2338e-85db-4b59-9e11-f0987eec4b2e", "symbol": "FOUR", "name": "Shift4 Payments Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.959, "architecture_energy": 13.492, "architecture_maturity": 28.574, "architecture_confidence": 63.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 29.32, "upward_expansion": 31.63, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 46.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.652, 47.625818, 46.005667, 46.11843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.26, "trend_reference": 48.141667, "distance_from_trend": -0.142946, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.732308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.116736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.303981, "excess_performance": -0.429606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821748, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13513453, "relative_activity": 1.614849, "balance": 0.821748, "dry_up": 0.855872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16762, "annualized_volatility": 0.758288, "from_high_reference": -0.55534, "from_low_reference": 0.193866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.141667, "fair_value_reference": 73.732308, "structural_low": 34.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028786, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.040621, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073275, "worst_return": -0.19142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.218991, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.102524, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367958, "worst_return": -0.234816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076113, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.092632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.482617, "worst_return": -0.337363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 48.158667, 45.442, 44.703333, 46.480667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.31, "volume": 5413032, "typical_volume": 9082985.9, "trend": 49.881, "fair_value": 74.048077, "relative_strength": -27.164896, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.896801, "energy": 23.601731, "activity_lines": [ 49.569333, 46.573455, 45.261952, 46.478753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.35, "volume": 3864936, "typical_volume": 8326343.1, "trend": 49.318333, "fair_value": 73.930962, "relative_strength": -28.039666, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.443817, "energy": 29.863515, "activity_lines": [ 49.718, 47.208, 45.60419, 46.379978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.0, "volume": 5857154, "typical_volume": 8196740.3, "trend": 48.995667, "fair_value": 73.857628, "relative_strength": -20.377384, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.540246, "energy": 41.788397, "activity_lines": [ 50.82, 48.572909, 46.387, 46.617505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.26, "volume": 13513453, "typical_volume": 8368245.0, "trend": 48.141667, "fair_value": 73.732308, "relative_strength": -39.116736, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.95876, "energy": 13.492449, "activity_lines": [ 47.652, 47.625818, 46.005667, 46.11843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }