{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ae63100-923c-4d3c-9ab8-86331ea4774b", "symbol": "BILI", "name": "Bilibili Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.193, "architecture_energy": 27.352, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.28, "rotation_up": 27.83, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 26.33, "downward_expansion": 57.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.357333, 17.916727, 18.441095, 20.012065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.74, "trend_reference": 22.841333, "distance_from_trend": -0.179558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.884968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.256343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405645, "excess_performance": -0.593099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9805957, "relative_activity": 0.768183, "balance": 0.850734, "dry_up": 0.837676, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092172, "annualized_volatility": 0.433254, "from_high_reference": -0.485165, "from_low_reference": 0.186827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.841333, "fair_value_reference": 18.884968, "structural_low": 15.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.042011, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.047795, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.005525, "worst_return": -0.344666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.067058, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.174316, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.348769, "worst_return": -0.552125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.692131, "worst_return": -0.574098, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.248667, 17.437273, 19.240619, 21.378968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.04, "volume": 14203094, "typical_volume": 13795080.2, "trend": 23.691, "fair_value": 18.87125, "relative_strength": -34.55289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.816324, "energy": 51.889688, "activity_lines": [ 17.504, 17.453455, 18.959429, 20.999892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.16, "volume": 9010115, "typical_volume": 13156454.05, "trend": 23.431333, "fair_value": 18.861571, "relative_strength": -36.230427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.994129, "energy": 49.770813, "activity_lines": [ 17.454, 17.382727, 18.641381, 20.578538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1, "volume": 9752979, "typical_volume": 12915658.65, "trend": 23.189, "fair_value": 18.867596, "relative_strength": -28.995625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.331545, "energy": 35.472466, "activity_lines": [ 18.053333, 17.699455, 18.543857, 20.299097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.74, "volume": 9805957, "typical_volume": 12765126.1, "trend": 22.841333, "fair_value": 18.884968, "relative_strength": -33.256343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.193303, "energy": 27.351661, "activity_lines": [ 18.357333, 17.916727, 18.441095, 20.012065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }