{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2ae9c416-22ce-4176-8dcc-974cdc4f5061",
    "symbol": "CEM",
    "name": "Cementir Holding N.V.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -25.388,
    "architecture_energy": 12.777,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.761,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.577,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.12,
        "rotation_up": 25.58,
        "upward_expansion": 16.0,
        "deceleration": 57.17,
        "rotation_down": 33.17,
        "downward_expansion": 59.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.836667,
        14.870545,
        14.805121,
        14.947716
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 15.07,
    "trend_reference": 15.496338,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.027512,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 11.972708,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258696,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -17.235184,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.189736,
    "excess_performance": -0.360628,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027512,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050131,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.258696,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028214,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.172352,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027747,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.189736,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.558054,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 593205,
      "relative_activity": 0.833994,
      "balance": 0.558054,
      "dry_up": 0.95079,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.061816,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.365568,
      "from_high_reference": -0.256279,
      "from_low_reference": 0.178792
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.496338,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.972708,
      "structural_low": 13.03,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.034798,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004324,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.149484,
        "worst_return": -0.09901,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.17366,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.144223,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.283505,
        "worst_return": -0.158416,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.148069,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016731,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.271907,
        "worst_return": -0.269527,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.629983,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.358813,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.63055,
        "worst_return": -0.347412,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.126882,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04659,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.193133,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039855,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.113852,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.146753,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020349,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.134094,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.104242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.145317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.035693,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014132,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 19.853658,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 11.744715,
        "relative_strength": -16.24556,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 763558.75,
        "trend": 16.029916,
        "fair_value": 11.791517,
        "relative_strength": -19.416029,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.00568,
        "energy": 18.761243,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.86,
        "volume": 403414,
        "typical_volume": 740335.1,
        "trend": 15.904634,
        "fair_value": 11.839246,
        "relative_strength": -15.993222,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -22.455651,
        "energy": 12.516212,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.874667,
          14.830909,
          14.816443,
          15.137914
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.23,
        "volume": 782033,
        "typical_volume": 734662.6,
        "trend": 15.763573,
        "fair_value": 11.880363,
        "relative_strength": -19.249738,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.616341,
        "energy": 28.183279,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.631333,
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          14.75994,
          15.029873
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.07,
        "volume": 926467,
        "typical_volume": 712601.0,
        "trend": 15.64986,
        "fair_value": 11.925727,
        "relative_strength": -14.950482,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.803598,
        "energy": 18.563867,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.74,
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          14.78457,
          14.985126
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.07,
        "volume": 593205,
        "typical_volume": 711281.75,
        "trend": 15.496338,
        "fair_value": 11.972708,
        "relative_strength": -17.235184,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.387996,
        "energy": 12.77673,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.836667,
          14.870545,
          14.805121,
          14.947716
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}