{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2aea24c3-2aa7-4e33-87ba-4d6a62d9e91e", "symbol": "ALIKO", "name": "Ikonisys S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.452, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.948, "architecture_energy": 21.341, "architecture_maturity": 21.219, "architecture_confidence": 60.263, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.16, "rotation_up": 11.18, "upward_expansion": 11.29, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 45.75, "downward_expansion": 56.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.483333, 1.492, 1.488952, 1.489011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.502833, "distance_from_trend": -0.035156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.484423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.344221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115854, "excess_performance": -0.169165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.698093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9226, "relative_activity": 0.456652, "balance": 1.698093, "dry_up": 0.114163, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041379, "annualized_volatility": 0.208721, "from_high_reference": -0.211957, "from_low_reference": 0.066176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.502833, "fair_value_reference": 1.484423, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.011204, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.040462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035123, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.085714, "worst_return": -0.084967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006536, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": -0.071633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.084967, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.129284, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.169054, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.48, "volume": 6460, "typical_volume": 3310.9, "trend": 1.688, "fair_value": 2.252018, "relative_strength": -16.298957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.434074, "energy": 11.330579, "activity_lines": [ 1.504, 1.507273, 1.482833, 1.497054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35477.05, "trend": 1.518667, "fair_value": 1.486603, "relative_strength": -3.911116, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.178625, "energy": 13.190185, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.509273, 1.484333, 1.495796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28745.45, "trend": 1.515333, "fair_value": 1.485962, "relative_strength": -3.766664, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.25609, "energy": 13.62658, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.509455, 1.486333, 1.494591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25408.2, "trend": 1.5125, "fair_value": 1.485192, "relative_strength": -4.004735, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.691213, "energy": 12.343302, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.507818, 1.488714, 1.493602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22452.3, "trend": 1.508667, "fair_value": 1.484744, "relative_strength": -5.308809, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.994833, "energy": 10.85119, "activity_lines": [ 1.5, 1.504, 1.491286, 1.492796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 9226, "typical_volume": 20203.55, "trend": 1.502833, "fair_value": 1.484423, "relative_strength": -10.344221, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.94753, "energy": 21.341335, "activity_lines": [ 1.483333, 1.492, 1.488952, 1.489011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }