{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2af18dc4-8084-4373-99f0-416be6374f67", "symbol": "STEELXIND", "name": "Steel Exchange India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.77, "architecture_energy": 21.435, "architecture_maturity": 65.394, "architecture_confidence": 93.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.26, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 55.5, "deceleration": 90.7, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.45, 11.833273, 11.56819, 10.842839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.21, "trend_reference": 9.926333, "distance_from_trend": 0.129319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.7725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.794484, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.403004, "excess_performance": 0.446713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.157945, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.403004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278769, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5651517, "relative_activity": 0.475673, "balance": 1.278769, "dry_up": 0.560357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115693, "annualized_volatility": 0.538259, "from_high_reference": -0.16963, "from_low_reference": 0.601429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.926333, "fair_value_reference": 10.7725, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011202, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.028165, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222374, "worst_return": -0.314785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022916, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.360622, "worst_return": -0.225528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.079774, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.157493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.260487, "worst_return": -0.466273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.158783, 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"2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04461, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101251, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.589127, "energy": 32.06778, "activity_lines": [ 11.992667, 12.174727, 11.450476, 10.661462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.23, "volume": 4516431, "typical_volume": 11836477.45, "trend": 9.845333, "fair_value": 10.783654, "relative_strength": 16.985951, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.944623, "energy": 21.649981, "activity_lines": [ 11.685333, 12.013455, 11.518619, 10.754796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.21, "volume": 5651517, "typical_volume": 11881095.3, "trend": 9.926333, "fair_value": 10.7725, "relative_strength": 15.794484, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.770044, "energy": 21.435088, "activity_lines": [ 11.45, 11.833273, 11.56819, 10.842839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }