{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2af66529-1c46-40d0-b81b-91f21d788fa0", "symbol": "NARMADA", "name": "Narmada Agrobase Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.596, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.018, "architecture_energy": 23.773, "architecture_maturity": 18.841, "architecture_confidence": 59.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.76, "rotation_up": 18.74, "upward_expansion": 21.39, "deceleration": 58.27, "rotation_down": 58.96, "downward_expansion": 37.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.432, 17.434454, 17.841119, 17.580032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 17.025333, "distance_from_trend": -0.184157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.655332, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.477851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1335, "excess_performance": -0.089791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.587869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.343694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19699022, "relative_activity": 1.820141, "balance": 0.343694, "dry_up": 1.905569, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216426, "annualized_volatility": 0.565164, "from_high_reference": -0.38499, "from_low_reference": 0.39598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.025333, "fair_value_reference": 10.655332, "structural_low": 13.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047516, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.052145, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.193364, "worst_return": -0.164949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001142, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038248, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.263367, "worst_return": -0.073892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.225767, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.245048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292378, "worst_return": -0.027094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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19.59, "volume": 19697912, "typical_volume": 7850139.8, "trend": 16.576833, "fair_value": 10.493387, "relative_strength": 37.536557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.097186, "energy": 30.623762, "activity_lines": [ 18.837666, 18.791364, 18.323214, 17.709699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.459999, "volume": 10337730, "typical_volume": 8326583.2, "trend": 16.805333, "fair_value": 10.557839, "relative_strength": 24.329877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.373622, "energy": 13.639782, "activity_lines": [ 18.368999, 18.567091, 18.296809, 17.766677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.02, "volume": 32759704, "typical_volume": 9924854.2, "trend": 16.997667, "fair_value": 10.61425, "relative_strength": 17.039896, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.626642, "energy": 11.366818, "activity_lines": [ 17.777333, 18.269091, 18.221428, 17.780527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 19699022, "typical_volume": 10822801.6, "trend": 17.025333, "fair_value": 10.655332, "relative_strength": -5.477851, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.018326, "energy": 23.77264, "activity_lines": [ 16.432, 17.434454, 17.841119, 17.580032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }