{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2af6ec67-a63c-4023-a44d-582e94834869", "symbol": "JPN", "name": "Amundi Japan TOPIX II UCITS ETF EUR Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.984, "architecture_energy": 47.733, "architecture_maturity": 78.948, "architecture_confidence": 60.686, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.35, "rotation_up": 49.4, "upward_expansion": 75.39, "deceleration": 68.41, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 11.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 216.25, 215.657272, 212.278095, 208.792495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 222.5, "trend_reference": 204.650001, "distance_from_trend": 0.087222, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 168.245936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322469, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.477269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118315, "excess_performance": -0.052577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050646, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.053771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16563, "relative_activity": 3.844975, "balance": 3.053771, "dry_up": 2.292465, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027876, "annualized_volatility": 0.189366, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.293338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.650001, "fair_value_reference": 168.245936, "structural_low": 185.589996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.004078, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.00724, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.093338, "worst_return": -0.109434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007592, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020446, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.134571, "worst_return": -0.032925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038384, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001516, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.200144, "worst_return": -0.115675, "sufficient": true }, { 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207.291762, 204.327936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 218.130005, "volume": 8165, "typical_volume": 3187.9, "trend": 200.712668, "fair_value": 166.282144, "relative_strength": -1.334626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.179289, "energy": 84.312143, "activity_lines": [ 216.734001, 214.123636, 208.644619, 205.528345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 209.699997, "volume": 9890, "typical_volume": 3614.25, "trend": 201.617001, "fair_value": 166.74834, "relative_strength": -3.849833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.182141, "energy": 51.760104, "activity_lines": [ 214.767333, 213.710181, 209.134619, 206.108172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.399994, "volume": 8833, "typical_volume": 3685.8, "trend": 202.664667, "fair_value": 167.214708, "relative_strength": -1.578333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.734044, "energy": 47.316993, "activity_lines": [ 214.355998, 214.083817, 210.067666, 206.932882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 212.630005, "volume": 4215, "typical_volume": 3680.4, "trend": 203.641334, "fair_value": 167.697626, "relative_strength": -3.06044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.761472, "energy": 33.641575, "activity_lines": [ 213.593333, 214.01509, 210.746619, 207.575807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.5, "volume": 16563, "typical_volume": 4307.7, "trend": 204.650001, "fair_value": 168.245936, "relative_strength": -1.477269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.983553, "energy": 47.732609, "activity_lines": [ 216.25, 215.657272, 212.278095, 208.792495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }