{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2af9d6f2-45a0-4e5c-a518-c182a3d4ad61", "symbol": "CERS", "name": "Cerus Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.682, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.519, "architecture_energy": 16.177, "architecture_maturity": 75.725, "architecture_confidence": 83.702, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.24, "rotation_up": 24.44, "upward_expansion": 58.11, "deceleration": 85.04, "rotation_down": 38.4, "downward_expansion": 21.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.568, 2.733273, 2.691048, 2.553376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.35, "trend_reference": 2.430333, "distance_from_trend": -0.033054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.850224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.532088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068182, "excess_performance": -0.119272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20173130, "relative_activity": 1.670802, "balance": 1.235813, "dry_up": 1.161709, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197614, "annualized_volatility": 0.906628, "from_high_reference": -0.322728, "from_low_reference": 1.043478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.430333, "fair_value_reference": 1.850224, "structural_low": 1.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.055046, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025691, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.345679, "worst_return": -0.246795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.167421, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.217263, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.699346, "worst_return": -0.23176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042502, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078179, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.359477, "worst_return": -0.291845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.942182, 2.690143, 2.539828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.93, "volume": 12004031, "typical_volume": 11508683.5, "trend": 2.414667, "fair_value": 1.849455, "relative_strength": 32.579412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.302044, "energy": 46.234846, "activity_lines": [ 3.051333, 2.958727, 2.737524, 2.575011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 15448115, "typical_volume": 11554001.3, "trend": 2.420667, "fair_value": 1.84766, "relative_strength": -3.718629, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.476785, "energy": 14.200951, "activity_lines": [ 2.750667, 2.822727, 2.705857, 2.557935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.35, "volume": 20173130, "typical_volume": 12073919.65, "trend": 2.430333, "fair_value": 1.850224, "relative_strength": -0.532088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.519098, "energy": 16.176722, "activity_lines": [ 2.568, 2.733273, 2.691048, 2.553376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }