{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2af9ee33-5f6c-45b3-8fae-a3405a604434", "symbol": "IMBA", "name": "iShares US Mortgage Backed Securities UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.788, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.373, "architecture_energy": 42.44, "architecture_maturity": 34.518, "architecture_confidence": 49.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.39, "rotation_up": 43.12, "upward_expansion": 70.76, "deceleration": 73.75, "rotation_down": 25.07, "downward_expansion": 11.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.501213, 4.501115, 4.46333, 4.44299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.5033, "trend_reference": 4.419917, "distance_from_trend": 0.018865, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.436583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015038, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.450309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035241, "excess_performance": -0.047642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018865, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 37.282046, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5849, "relative_activity": 0.281767, "balance": 37.282046, "dry_up": 0.155011, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010695, "annualized_volatility": 0.045058, "from_high_reference": -0.187658, "from_low_reference": 0.050675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.419917, "fair_value_reference": 4.436583, "structural_low": 4.2934, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004815, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007514, "worst_return": -0.082976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006328, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004254, "worst_return": -0.07935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02632, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040506, "worst_return": -0.070212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.262808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016123, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.2508, "volume": 31700, "typical_volume": 55200.3, "trend": 4.458973, "fair_value": 4.865056, "relative_strength": -4.901742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 21593.05, "trend": 4.41876, "fair_value": 4.435157, "relative_strength": -7.767211, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.380041, "energy": 44.820202, "activity_lines": [ 4.499953, 4.496795, 4.456574, 4.437536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5033, "volume": 5849, "typical_volume": 20758.25, "trend": 4.419917, "fair_value": 4.436583, "relative_strength": -8.450309, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.372756, "energy": 42.4403, "activity_lines": [ 4.501213, 4.501115, 4.46333, 4.44299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }