{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2afd6bc5-38f2-4a16-ad81-63b7ac2c9756", "symbol": "HVST", "name": "Betashares Australian Dividend Harvester Active ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.866, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.139, "architecture_energy": 62.724, "architecture_maturity": 37.407, "architecture_confidence": 64.023, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.72, "rotation_up": 67.71, "upward_expansion": 57.15, "deceleration": 26.96, "rotation_down": 16.93, "downward_expansion": 20.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.357298, 13.230129, 13.137969, 13.132777 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.72, "trend_reference": 13.159526, "distance_from_trend": 0.042591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.213076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.221068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042913, "excess_performance": -0.020793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03556, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.359542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265567, "relative_activity": 1.773428, "balance": 1.359542, "dry_up": 1.45542, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017679, "annualized_volatility": 0.122686, "from_high_reference": -0.006115, "from_low_reference": 0.102566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.159526, "fair_value_reference": 12.213076, "structural_low": 12.443698, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.005969, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.000571, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.063864, "worst_return": -0.047306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015674, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.002081, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.080382, "worst_return": -0.036613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004152, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084979, "worst_return": -0.010133, 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0.024225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.050519, "volume": 131005, "typical_volume": 143892.3, "trend": 13.136384, "fair_value": 12.158186, "relative_strength": -1.156262, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.481198, "energy": 9.437887, "activity_lines": [ 13.066212, 13.041513, 13.04086, 13.085645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.070429, "volume": 186921, "typical_volume": 146245.95, "trend": 13.13358, "fair_value": 12.173806, "relative_strength": -0.702075, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.134272, "energy": 8.84893, "activity_lines": [ 13.065705, 13.052563, 13.043649, 13.081389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.349158, "volume": 288291, "typical_volume": 150083.75, "trend": 13.139069, "fair_value": 12.192009, "relative_strength": -0.858692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.059661, "energy": 23.15698, "activity_lines": [ 13.159357, 13.111721, 13.074038, 13.095298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.72, "volume": 265567, "typical_volume": 149747.85, "trend": 13.159526, "fair_value": 12.213076, "relative_strength": -1.221068, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.139243, "energy": 62.723507, "activity_lines": [ 13.357298, 13.230129, 13.137969, 13.132777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }