{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b049e85-d43b-4265-9949-ae6d6662fa45", "symbol": "301187", "name": "Suzhou Alton Electrical & Mechanical Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.516, "architecture_energy": 54.266, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.97, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 60.9, "rotation_down": 50.31, "downward_expansion": 80.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.762, 14.853636, 16.381358, 17.716442 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.94, "trend_reference": 19.759694, "distance_from_trend": -0.193307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.216748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170515, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.73599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.344665, "excess_performance": -0.352065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170515, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007689, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14196483, "relative_activity": 1.354451, "balance": 0.696958, "dry_up": 1.385575, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111356, "annualized_volatility": 0.491964, "from_high_reference": -0.558623, "from_low_reference": 0.262074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.759694, "fair_value_reference": 19.216748, "structural_low": 12.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055989, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.068148, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.134286, "worst_return": -0.21386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085679, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171862, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.263104, "worst_return": -0.261066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.082253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066562, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159872, "worst_return": -0.324378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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11939494, "typical_volume": 9373079.7, "trend": 20.467486, "fair_value": 19.166449, "relative_strength": -46.054158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.993001, "energy": 71.396959, "activity_lines": [ 13.84, 14.865515, 16.828481, 18.312127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.41, "volume": 21466525, "typical_volume": 10118877.9, "trend": 20.115637, "fair_value": 19.186152, "relative_strength": -33.648518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.218205, "energy": 63.518599, "activity_lines": [ 14.257333, 14.763454, 16.563593, 17.985838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.94, "volume": 14196483, "typical_volume": 10481352.95, "trend": 19.759694, "fair_value": 19.216748, "relative_strength": -33.73599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.516345, "energy": 54.266467, "activity_lines": [ 14.762, 14.853636, 16.381358, 17.716442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }