{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b04aad7-cfa4-4ec3-b793-78e4d9e93622", "symbol": "SIQ", "name": "Smartgroup Corporation Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.79, "architecture_energy": 69.979, "architecture_maturity": 95.722, "architecture_confidence": 93.9, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 61.74, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.62, "rotation_down": 28.35, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.965333, 12.788545, 12.060952, 11.188779 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.36, "trend_reference": 10.145494, "distance_from_trend": 0.316841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.069699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.655576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.473958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.631682, "excess_performance": 0.567976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.316841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.655576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.36474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.631682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.828337, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2116788, "relative_activity": 0.930945, "balance": 2.828337, "dry_up": 1.124942, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049171, "annualized_volatility": 0.329518, "from_high_reference": -0.017647, "from_low_reference": 0.889438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.145494, "fair_value_reference": 8.069699, "structural_low": 7.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.024925, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": 0.017891, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.244809, "worst_return": -0.255702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.059058, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.018432, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.249446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.096948, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.063027, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.502849, "worst_return": -0.469944, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.166848, "energy": 67.863304, "activity_lines": [ 12.506, 12.225818, 11.117458, 10.368287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.99, "volume": 2678274, "typical_volume": 2276437.95, "trend": 9.723764, "fair_value": 7.962862, "relative_strength": 44.332224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.200423, "energy": 70.929815, "activity_lines": [ 12.678667, 12.421818, 11.388429, 10.588387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.71, "volume": 2993950, "typical_volume": 2256199.4, "trend": 9.857183, "fair_value": 7.996601, "relative_strength": 40.002436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.18796, "energy": 65.238178, "activity_lines": [ 12.704, 12.524727, 11.611286, 10.781047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.81, "volume": 2442587, "typical_volume": 2276066.45, "trend": 9.992974, "fair_value": 8.031739, "relative_strength": 36.459412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.003488, "energy": 63.719961, "activity_lines": [ 12.753333, 12.617273, 11.82219, 10.971552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.36, "volume": 2116788, "typical_volume": 2273804.95, "trend": 10.145494, "fair_value": 8.069699, "relative_strength": 36.473958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.790127, "energy": 69.979127, "activity_lines": [ 12.965333, 12.788545, 12.060952, 11.188779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }