{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b051d8e-85b7-406b-bd58-40bb7d422750", "symbol": "603029", "name": "Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.896, "architecture_energy": 55.93, "architecture_maturity": 62.969, "architecture_confidence": 91.511, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 25.4, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 51.8, "downward_expansion": 80.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.264, 14.403665, 15.600083, 16.556223 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.99, "trend_reference": 17.67722, "distance_from_trend": -0.152016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.524565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144629, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.695169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246734, "excess_performance": -0.20353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.28028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10079360, "relative_activity": 1.062252, "balance": 0.28028, "dry_up": 1.074336, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085106, "annualized_volatility": 0.386027, "from_high_reference": -0.306019, "from_low_reference": 0.16382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.67722, "fair_value_reference": 17.524565, "structural_low": 12.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.018336, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.000448, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.735867, "worst_return": -0.134088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057373, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000189, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.700649, "worst_return": -0.14393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.164195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.134534, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.891566, "worst_return": -0.330647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.621592, "energy": 83.811408, "activity_lines": [ 14.402667, 15.031942, 16.45813, 17.289126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.18, "volume": 11325750, "typical_volume": 11383366.8, "trend": 17.921887, "fair_value": 17.616238, "relative_strength": -25.196329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.884693, "energy": 70.066326, "activity_lines": [ 13.956667, 14.551417, 16.046194, 16.972187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.27, "volume": 9510563, "typical_volume": 11051907.5, "trend": 17.785554, "fair_value": 17.569539, "relative_strength": -18.917547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.169479, "energy": 63.901068, "activity_lines": [ 13.991333, 14.374914, 15.771401, 16.736581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.99, "volume": 10079360, "typical_volume": 9488669.0, "trend": 17.67722, "fair_value": 17.524565, "relative_strength": -16.695169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.895697, "energy": 55.930482, "activity_lines": [ 14.264, 14.403665, 15.600083, 16.556223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }