{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b0c6e43-b64e-48e6-8741-7c455118154e", "symbol": "033780", "name": "KT&G Corporation", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.377, "architecture_energy": 23.483, "architecture_maturity": 2.392, "architecture_confidence": 63.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.86, "rotation_up": 22.23, "upward_expansion": 10.6, "deceleration": 50.75, "rotation_down": 49.46, "downward_expansion": 49.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 173080.0, 174231.993182, 175886.513839, 175959.733737 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 174300.0, "trend_reference": 173450.694271, "distance_from_trend": 0.004897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118554.030649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.470216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.458109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103165, "excess_performance": -0.198746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.470216, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.236644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 807721, "relative_activity": 1.088724, "balance": 1.236644, "dry_up": 1.396338, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050166, "annualized_volatility": 0.246521, "from_high_reference": -0.082632, "from_low_reference": 0.354118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 173450.694271, "fair_value_reference": 118554.030649, "structural_low": 152100.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028847, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.036883, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.096239, "worst_return": -0.073845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034047, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.107737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181416, "worst_return": -0.075305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.153887, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.177031, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.372662, 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176311.31108, 177476.335193, 176029.941499 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 171800.0, "volume": 1153951, "typical_volume": 752327.4, "trend": 173096.245833, "fair_value": 117305.092298, "relative_strength": -14.300169, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.844059, "energy": 15.216717, "activity_lines": [ 173099.620833, 175405.477841, 176836.712202, 175951.579335 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 172000.0, "volume": 1027558, "typical_volume": 766717.5, "trend": 173077.360937, "fair_value": 117919.393229, "relative_strength": -13.167073, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.425629, "energy": 22.792411, "activity_lines": [ 172640.0, 174596.008239, 176237.089211, 175880.853797 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 174300.0, "volume": 807721, "typical_volume": 741897.05, "trend": 173450.694271, "fair_value": 118554.030649, "relative_strength": -13.458109, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.376895, "energy": 23.483391, "activity_lines": [ 173080.0, 174231.993182, 175886.513839, 175959.733737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }