{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b0e706f-1662-4239-aa1d-1582ee536278", "symbol": "PULM", "name": "Pulmatrix Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.004, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.15, "architecture_energy": 14.251, "architecture_maturity": 21.319, "architecture_confidence": 43.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 38.95, "upward_expansion": 38.99, "deceleration": 34.07, "rotation_down": 17.53, "downward_expansion": 42.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.687333, 1.659636, 1.540618, 1.612669 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.66, "trend_reference": 1.809313, "distance_from_trend": -0.082525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.485065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.523682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -50.712107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.330645, "excess_performance": -0.518099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.523682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.692837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31775, "relative_activity": 0.128391, "balance": 6.692837, "dry_up": 0.244679, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116043, "annualized_volatility": 1.116758, "from_high_reference": -0.698072, "from_low_reference": 0.431034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.809313, "fair_value_reference": 3.485065, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.056687, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 2.029853, "worst_return": -0.183308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008599, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073244, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.604139, "worst_return": -0.303571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.11355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.300077, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.834906, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.477041, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.963228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.069459, "worst_return": -0.803231, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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290805.25, "trend": 1.87298, "fair_value": 3.502693, "relative_strength": -52.030498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.595902, "energy": 23.34767, "activity_lines": [ 1.682, 1.578182, 1.49191, 1.645289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.65, "volume": 55927, "typical_volume": 257081.85, "trend": 1.84998, "fair_value": 3.496283, "relative_strength": -51.002415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.185342, "energy": 21.328956, "activity_lines": [ 1.683333, 1.606545, 1.503209, 1.630903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 67169, "typical_volume": 254604.25, "trend": 1.832647, "fair_value": 3.490706, "relative_strength": -47.138497, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.464084, "energy": 20.783305, "activity_lines": [ 1.702, 1.644, 1.524842, 1.623808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.66, "volume": 31775, "typical_volume": 247486.5, "trend": 1.809313, "fair_value": 3.485065, "relative_strength": -50.712107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.150492, "energy": 14.250922, "activity_lines": [ 1.687333, 1.659636, 1.540618, 1.612669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }