{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b0ec4f4-d04e-427b-b7a3-fec9d3ed2e33", "symbol": "000966", "name": "CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.785, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.031, "architecture_energy": 24.463, "architecture_maturity": 38.627, "architecture_confidence": 59.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.63, "rotation_up": 21.27, "upward_expansion": 13.8, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 40.22, "downward_expansion": 63.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.195333, 4.194, 4.414571, 4.509097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.18, "trend_reference": 4.577, "distance_from_trend": -0.086738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.543313, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.453124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087336, "excess_performance": -0.094736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.260525, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256498313, "relative_activity": 0.599989, "balance": 1.260525, "dry_up": 0.844328, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124586, "annualized_volatility": 0.5604, "from_high_reference": -0.297479, "from_low_reference": 0.138965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.577, "fair_value_reference": 4.543313, "structural_low": 3.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.007624, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.008176, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.201245, "worst_return": -0.151409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014386, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043121, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.186636, "worst_return": -0.256854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000496, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.264317, "worst_return": -0.363412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040773, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007229, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.257029, "volume": 80185002, "typical_volume": 185686169.6, "trend": 5.067537, "fair_value": 5.953627, "relative_strength": 8.311719, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.207976, 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.15, "volume": 534705785, "typical_volume": 461261950.35, "trend": 4.582, "fair_value": 4.557858, "relative_strength": -8.818565, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.845939, "energy": 62.034353, "activity_lines": [ 4.092667, 4.283091, 4.484714, 4.554387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.28, "volume": 265458807, "typical_volume": 446242936.65, "trend": 4.58, "fair_value": 4.550217, "relative_strength": -4.036605, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.867493, "energy": 35.817556, "activity_lines": [ 4.171333, 4.243455, 4.45281, 4.534903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.18, "volume": 256498313, "typical_volume": 427505209.8, "trend": 4.577, "fair_value": 4.543313, "relative_strength": -10.453124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.030683, "energy": 24.463003, "activity_lines": [ 4.195333, 4.194, 4.414571, 4.509097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }