{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b0fa918-87d2-44cb-a251-0abdd53587be", "symbol": "601008", "name": "Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.334, "architecture_energy": 28.49, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.636, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.37, "rotation_up": 26.1, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 36.33, "downward_expansion": 65.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.312667, 4.293455, 4.409963, 4.547331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.29, "trend_reference": 4.744362, "distance_from_trend": -0.095769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.479017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.366054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194296, "excess_performance": -0.151092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057764, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49878575, "relative_activity": 1.322112, "balance": 0.300047, "dry_up": 1.224511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064909, "annualized_volatility": 0.252213, "from_high_reference": -0.342008, "from_low_reference": 0.064516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.744362, "fair_value_reference": 4.479017, "structural_low": 4.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.006572, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.004338, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.124646, "worst_return": -0.08686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045584, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.047791, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.167164, "worst_return": -0.146988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026442, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034047, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.054598, "worst_return": -0.14087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"down", "direction": -71.036108, "energy": 80.023847, "activity_lines": [ 4.208667, 4.340545, 4.522003, 4.67416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.33, "volume": 44728429, "typical_volume": 63965595.65, "trend": 4.829993, "fair_value": 4.475478, "relative_strength": -12.863073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.58585, "energy": 61.782108, "activity_lines": [ 4.233333, 4.317273, 4.487789, 4.640231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.3, "volume": 56046923, "typical_volume": 43376293.2, "trend": 4.803416, "fair_value": 4.476631, "relative_strength": -13.817422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.900547, "energy": 46.643807, "activity_lines": [ 4.257333, 4.298545, 4.455688, 4.606038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 34131919, "typical_volume": 38816614.7, "trend": 4.776541, "fair_value": 4.478236, "relative_strength": -11.889971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.014993, "energy": 34.68556, "activity_lines": [ 4.311333, 4.302182, 4.435474, 4.578721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.29, "volume": 49878575, "typical_volume": 37726446.3, "trend": 4.744362, "fair_value": 4.479017, "relative_strength": -15.366054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.333912, "energy": 28.490405, "activity_lines": [ 4.312667, 4.293455, 4.409963, 4.547331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }