{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b1c9a2a-59a3-4960-ac45-b5bfb58db4fc", "symbol": "JEME", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Emerging Markets Research Enh Idx Eq Active UCITS ETF EUR (acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.356, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.804, "architecture_energy": 25.888, "architecture_maturity": 65.708, "architecture_confidence": 83.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.33, "rotation_up": 21.19, "upward_expansion": 55.13, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 36.05, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.452666, 37.059545, 36.953929, 36.000301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.764999, "trend_reference": 34.721667, "distance_from_trend": 0.058849, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.653883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.363541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158683, "excess_performance": -0.012209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.182948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10113, "relative_activity": 1.489462, "balance": 1.182948, "dry_up": 0.968747, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041386, "annualized_volatility": 0.233352, "from_high_reference": -0.074163, "from_low_reference": 0.402709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.721667, "fair_value_reference": 28.653883, "structural_low": 30.475, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006709, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 25.025, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 25.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.965, "volume": 8203, "typical_volume": 7974.5, "trend": 33.793834, "fair_value": 28.316222, "relative_strength": 5.651946, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.261228, "energy": 61.265539, "activity_lines": [ 38.356333, 38.090818, 36.664048, 35.459237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.720001, "volume": 6768, "typical_volume": 7825.0, "trend": 34.024, "fair_value": 28.397582, "relative_strength": 0.686322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.22705, "energy": 38.476131, "activity_lines": [ 37.451334, 37.707273, 36.709953, 35.583506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.52, "volume": 3801, "typical_volume": 6536.1, "trend": 34.280667, "fair_value": 28.48587, "relative_strength": 2.910456, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.540133, "energy": 24.963554, "activity_lines": [ 36.967, 37.494546, 36.823048, 35.744538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 5628, "typical_volume": 6641.95, "trend": 34.52, "fair_value": 28.566667, "relative_strength": 0.6162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.210609, "energy": 25.503339, "activity_lines": [ 36.509334, 37.2, 36.862643, 35.855463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.764999, "volume": 10113, "typical_volume": 6789.7, "trend": 34.721667, "fair_value": 28.653883, "relative_strength": -0.363541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.804302, "energy": 25.887734, "activity_lines": [ 36.452666, 37.059545, 36.953929, 36.000301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }