{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b1f2c90-3ed1-4af0-bebc-cb284c162ad7", "symbol": "CO2", "name": "SparkChange Physical Carbon EUA ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.13, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.813, "architecture_energy": 77.063, "architecture_maturity": 8.907, "architecture_confidence": 74.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.97, "rotation_up": 67.94, "upward_expansion": 88.63, "deceleration": 48.58, "rotation_down": 13.04, "downward_expansion": 17.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.676665, 76.597635, 74.823142, 73.289419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.949997, "trend_reference": 72.675, "distance_from_trend": 0.086343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.023269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127482, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.141213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059732, "excess_performance": -0.11116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.007797, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1043, "relative_activity": 1.589333, "balance": 9.007797, "dry_up": 0.825143, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032484, "annualized_volatility": 0.260517, "from_high_reference": -0.10182, "from_low_reference": 0.326891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.675, "fair_value_reference": 70.023269, "structural_low": 59.5, 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70.114551, "relative_strength": -11.032586, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.742758, "energy": 46.509309, "activity_lines": [ 75.197334, 74.666727, 72.961905, 72.28 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.099998, "volume": 348, "typical_volume": 678.7, "trend": 73.029333, "fair_value": 70.064423, "relative_strength": -7.306973, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.870159, "energy": 46.490084, "activity_lines": [ 76.132, 75.414545, 73.626523, 72.596408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.669998, "volume": 265, "typical_volume": 633.1, "trend": 72.849, "fair_value": 70.043718, "relative_strength": -8.200366, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.422139, "energy": 68.829901, "activity_lines": [ 76.747999, 75.951818, 74.193809, 72.895806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.949997, "volume": 1043, "typical_volume": 656.25, "trend": 72.675, "fair_value": 70.023269, "relative_strength": -9.141213, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.812777, "energy": 77.062679, "activity_lines": [ 77.676665, 76.597635, 74.823142, 73.289419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }