{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b20c1b3-38d3-45cf-8e14-9c64510c9941", "symbol": "601997", "name": "Bank of Guiyang Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.815, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.319, "architecture_energy": 22.893, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.183, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.74, "rotation_up": 41.57, "upward_expansion": 22.02, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 23.33, "downward_expansion": 56.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.586667, 5.498555, 5.538493, 5.58731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.59, "trend_reference": 5.656319, "distance_from_trend": -0.011725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.463081, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.348308, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.037866, "excess_performance": 0.005338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.31865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 280931035, "relative_activity": 1.534493, "balance": 2.31865, "dry_up": 1.513219, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036759, "annualized_volatility": 0.192602, "from_high_reference": -0.143951, "from_low_reference": 0.081238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.656319, "fair_value_reference": 5.463081, "structural_low": 5.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.000763, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00378, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.252119, "worst_return": -0.092943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.04711, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.020186, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.283898, "worst_return": -0.087108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029001, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.247882, "worst_return": -0.12812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 267275449, "typical_volume": 173392248.75, "trend": 5.669652, "fair_value": 5.45119, "relative_strength": -1.918443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.596823, "energy": 52.968129, "activity_lines": [ 5.391333, 5.429328, 5.520108, 5.585072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.78, "volume": 268800073, "typical_volume": 176981056.45, "trend": 5.665652, "fair_value": 5.457831, "relative_strength": 2.250931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.131062, "energy": 12.408696, "activity_lines": [ 5.538667, 5.482046, 5.538063, 5.592191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.59, "volume": 280931035, "typical_volume": 183077383.0, "trend": 5.656319, "fair_value": 5.463081, "relative_strength": -3.348308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.318994, "energy": 22.89346, "activity_lines": [ 5.586667, 5.498555, 5.538493, 5.58731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }