{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b2c7708-f9af-4c5e-8748-628e05cfaa19", "symbol": "8250", "name": "Gulf Insurance Group", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.632, "architecture_energy": 62.222, "architecture_maturity": 84.598, "architecture_confidence": 77.5, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 55.22, "upward_expansion": 81.91, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 10.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.485333, 32.030909, 30.190217, 28.452242 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.139999, "trend_reference": 26.323454, "distance_from_trend": 0.258953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.222633, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263794, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.350126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.432338, "excess_performance": 0.464168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.258953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225435, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.343501, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201107, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.432338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.925695, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 852244, "relative_activity": 1.003002, "balance": 3.925695, "dry_up": 1.106161, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060849, "annualized_volatility": 0.2899, "from_high_reference": -0.046057, "from_low_reference": 0.660522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.323454, "fair_value_reference": 26.222633, "structural_low": 20.455555, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002662, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016027, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.11717, "worst_return": -0.12844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.120731, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.094493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10384, "worst_return": -0.166838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017587, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.148163, "worst_return": -0.111675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.135795, "energy": 70.499341, "activity_lines": [ 31.396001, 30.38434, 28.126198, 26.624449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.76, "volume": 306786, "typical_volume": 777253.4, "trend": 25.122667, "fair_value": 26.096558, "relative_strength": 28.892223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.872081, "energy": 65.359297, "activity_lines": [ 31.197334, 30.629092, 28.554942, 27.008537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.0, "volume": 1555247, "typical_volume": 799018.5, "trend": 25.560422, "fair_value": 26.14345, "relative_strength": 40.390333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.065825, "energy": 70.945556, "activity_lines": [ 32.049334, 31.389455, 29.250667, 27.581268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.84, "volume": 1045314, "typical_volume": 811547.2, "trend": 25.919473, "fair_value": 26.180197, "relative_strength": 33.148473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.98186, "energy": 57.269295, "activity_lines": [ 32.038667, 31.632364, 29.680787, 27.986402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.139999, "volume": 852244, "typical_volume": 849693.3, "trend": 26.323454, "fair_value": 26.222633, "relative_strength": 34.350126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.632334, "energy": 62.221849, "activity_lines": [ 32.485333, 32.030909, 30.190217, 28.452242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }