{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2b2d6c0e-211b-4fc4-8544-97113cbb38b3",
    "symbol": "FILA",
    "name": "F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 54.561,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 73.407,
    "architecture_energy": 45.363,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.27,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.181,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.54,
        "rotation_up": 56.91,
        "upward_expansion": 77.32,
        "deceleration": 55.86,
        "rotation_down": 20.72,
        "downward_expansion": 10.98
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.452667,
        9.334909,
        9.174067,
        9.094226
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 10.09,
    "trend_reference": 9.0422,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.115879,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 8.219175,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227617,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.980523,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.141454,
    "excess_performance": -0.029438,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115879,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004895,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.227617,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126405,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039805,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094366,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141454,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.729174,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1865152,
      "relative_activity": 2.775653,
      "balance": 1.729174,
      "dry_up": 1.290007,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049345,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.34691,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001978,
      "from_low_reference": 0.342539
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.0422,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.219175,
      "structural_low": 7.515609,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.008688,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010886,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.084011,
        "worst_return": -0.165067,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.027778,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015961,
        "regime_survival": 0.222222,
        "best_return": 0.192175,
        "worst_return": -0.124387,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.002959,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080086,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.150748,
        "worst_return": -0.28738,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.117324,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066956,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.235172,
        "worst_return": -0.348247,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.02907,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "energy": 45.369021,
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.026687,
        "energy": 8.608706,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 8.125451,
        "relative_strength": -8.393587,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 43.247164,
        "energy": 39.65272,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 9.074202,
        "fair_value": 8.145698,
        "relative_strength": -11.006505,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 26.161715,
        "energy": 42.581623,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 8.845,
        "volume": 621246,
        "typical_volume": 648565.15,
        "trend": 9.053937,
        "fair_value": 8.1626,
        "relative_strength": -13.268272,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.917438,
        "energy": 25.789713,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.169,
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          9.031014,
          9.010145
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 8.985,
        "volume": 507283,
        "typical_volume": 625996.75,
        "trend": 9.040287,
        "fair_value": 8.178757,
        "relative_strength": -11.540021,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 14.569082,
        "energy": 11.882557,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.097333,
          9.091818,
          9.033898,
          9.005697
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.36,
        "volume": 473696,
        "typical_volume": 619568.65,
        "trend": 9.037514,
        "fair_value": 8.19578,
        "relative_strength": -8.323288,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.545808,
        "energy": 11.765515,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.16,
          9.152818,
          9.071155,
          9.026324
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.09,
        "volume": 1865152,
        "typical_volume": 671968.8,
        "trend": 9.0422,
        "fair_value": 8.219175,
        "relative_strength": -3.980523,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.407258,
        "energy": 45.363097,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.452667,
          9.334909,
          9.174067,
          9.094226
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}