{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b37e01c-1e40-442d-a3c9-48cfc3245c5a", "symbol": "0571", "name": "eSun Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.041, "architecture_energy": 41.146, "architecture_maturity": 25.407, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.04, "rotation_up": 20.88, "upward_expansion": 5.32, "deceleration": 49.8, "rotation_down": 50.58, "downward_expansion": 76.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.041467, 0.041945, 0.044033, 0.045445 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.041, "trend_reference": 0.047033, "distance_from_trend": -0.128278, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.073308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.775025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196078, "excess_performance": -0.180787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128278, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.072138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207000, "relative_activity": 0.388116, "balance": 0.072138, "dry_up": 0.25265, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099437, "annualized_volatility": 0.356689, "from_high_reference": -0.405797, "from_low_reference": 0.078947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.047033, "fair_value_reference": 0.073308, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": 0.016338, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.433333, "worst_return": -0.564286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.04776, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.083692, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.34375, "worst_return": -0.542857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123288, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.157759, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -16.596729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.606096, "energy": 54.227229, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.043, 0.045433, 0.046596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.042, "volume": 304000, "typical_volume": 568625.85, "trend": 0.0476, "fair_value": 0.075346, "relative_strength": -13.549072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.981407, "energy": 41.35201, "activity_lines": [ 0.042, 0.042618, 0.044971, 0.046215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.042, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 527295.85, "trend": 0.047333, "fair_value": 0.074269, "relative_strength": -11.125084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.802401, "energy": 42.647507, "activity_lines": [ 0.041867, 0.042327, 0.044538, 0.045854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.041, "volume": 207000, "typical_volume": 533345.85, "trend": 0.047033, "fair_value": 0.073308, "relative_strength": -15.775025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.040715, "energy": 41.145721, "activity_lines": [ 0.041467, 0.041945, 0.044033, 0.045445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }