{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b3a66e0-066d-4ddc-b8a9-0acea357501e", "symbol": "WVVI", "name": "Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.346, "architecture_energy": 37.201, "architecture_maturity": 36.626, "architecture_confidence": 92.832, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.82, "rotation_up": 20.29, "upward_expansion": 10.76, "deceleration": 36.62, "rotation_down": 48.55, "downward_expansion": 74.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.613455, 2.663624, 2.665488 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.39, "trend_reference": 2.678837, "distance_from_trend": -0.107822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.246166, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.437139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.827655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.080769, "excess_performance": -0.268223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026646, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.437139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27279, "relative_activity": 0.932703, "balance": 1.013674, "dry_up": 0.793707, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13299, "annualized_volatility": 0.535734, "from_high_reference": -0.531373, "from_low_reference": 0.10643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.678837, "fair_value_reference": 4.246166, "structural_low": 2.1601, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024728, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.025916, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.040453, "worst_return": -0.088435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074607, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.135041, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.021886, "worst_return": -0.187075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.088167, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.300001, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.017799, "worst_return": -0.158534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069242, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.33155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.20042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00104, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.419558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.187075, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.02, "volume": 14236, "typical_volume": 18206.55, "trend": 6.037777, "fair_value": 8.394251, "relative_strength": -15.303414, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.75, "volume": 36374, "typical_volume": 28829.3, "trend": 2.73117, "fair_value": 4.313901, "relative_strength": -22.897016, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.829125, "energy": 8.853876, "activity_lines": [ 2.708, 2.69246, 2.703363, 2.698553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7, "volume": 17606, "typical_volume": 28698.05, "trend": 2.71617, "fair_value": 4.291807, "relative_strength": -21.727417, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.883025, "energy": 8.95799, "activity_lines": [ 2.72, 2.69164, 2.70491, 2.696542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.54, "volume": 11596, "typical_volume": 28796.0, "trend": 2.69517, "fair_value": 4.269756, "relative_strength": -25.339904, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.745571, "energy": 14.004039, "activity_lines": [ 2.684667, 2.663547, 2.691267, 2.685177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.39, "volume": 27279, "typical_volume": 29247.25, "trend": 2.678837, "fair_value": 4.246166, "relative_strength": -31.827655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.346094, "energy": 37.200786, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.613455, 2.663624, 2.665488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }