{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b3ab222-df15-4cd8-b48d-41d2ecdde826", "symbol": "T3PM", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Climate Change Solutions Active UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.332, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.357, "architecture_energy": 22.709, "architecture_maturity": 64.979, "architecture_confidence": 84.131, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.41, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 54.87, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 32.63, "downward_expansion": 20.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 3442.483333, 3461.877273, 3453.990476, 3403.927419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3495.75, "trend_reference": 3330.133333, "distance_from_trend": 0.049733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2696.32179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.343543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099984, "excess_performance": 0.048749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033435, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2876, "relative_activity": 0.498553, "balance": 0.558706, "dry_up": 0.968502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025601, "annualized_volatility": 0.149418, "from_high_reference": -0.024027, "from_low_reference": 0.301206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3330.133333, "fair_value_reference": 2696.32179, "structural_low": 2991.229004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033068, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026178, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.103482, "worst_return": -0.051997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153551, "worst_return": -0.054616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.026507, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026507, "worst_return": 0.026507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3453.0, "volume": 7146, "typical_volume": 6412.7, "trend": 3261.9, "fair_value": 2667.079804, "relative_strength": 6.458863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.751569, "energy": 54.575968, "activity_lines": [ 3504.216667, 3494.581818, 3431.8, 3366.763441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3378.5, "volume": 12148, "typical_volume": 6747.8, "trend": 3278.1, "fair_value": 2673.769868, "relative_strength": 3.033767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.61287, "energy": 32.529387, "activity_lines": [ 3460.466667, 3475.654545, 3433.361905, 3374.286022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3460.5, "volume": 3797, "typical_volume": 6760.35, "trend": 3297.275, "fair_value": 2681.040059, "relative_strength": 4.069695, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.664914, "energy": 23.131069, "activity_lines": [ 3449.933333, 3472.954545, 3442.454762, 3386.053763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3391.75, "volume": 3527, "typical_volume": 6500.55, "trend": 3313.183333, "fair_value": 2688.213457, "relative_strength": 0.689979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.217889, "energy": 24.354848, "activity_lines": [ 3424.05, 3457.836364, 3443.852381, 3392.148925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3495.75, "volume": 2876, "typical_volume": 5768.7, "trend": 3330.133333, "fair_value": 2696.32179, "relative_strength": 3.343543, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.356567, "energy": 22.708626, "activity_lines": [ 3442.483333, 3461.877273, 3453.990476, 3403.927419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }