{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b3c74cd-5397-48ea-bfb4-b86017548a5e", "symbol": "GGEO", "name": "Guideline Geo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.919, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.963, "architecture_energy": 36.672, "architecture_maturity": 52.814, "architecture_confidence": 42.41, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.5, "rotation_up": 54.13, "upward_expansion": 54.27, "deceleration": 26.61, "rotation_down": 21.04, "downward_expansion": 14.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.76, 9.662545, 9.532286, 9.500237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.88, "trend_reference": 9.544333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.071603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.625043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021782, "excess_performance": -0.083277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15207, "relative_activity": 0.748203, "balance": 1.051238, "dry_up": 0.933507, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057381, "annualized_volatility": 0.25529, "from_high_reference": -0.183471, "from_low_reference": 0.225806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.544333, "fair_value_reference": 10.071603, "structural_low": 8.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.006623, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.002344, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.260606, "worst_return": -0.176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022987, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053782, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.377483, "worst_return": -0.256506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025479, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014079, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.092715, "worst_return": -0.420074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.158782, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.084507, "worst_return": -0.266914, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.709677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.338308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126394, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.262069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054852, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057005, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057816, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.0, "volume": 14582, "typical_volume": 50834.95, "trend": 7.470667, "fair_value": 7.115, "relative_strength": 7.512462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.637729, "energy": 29.766474, 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"fair_value": 10.029423, "relative_strength": -8.610246, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.675529, "energy": 7.290567, "activity_lines": [ 9.486667, 9.433455, 9.390571, 9.449118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.7, "volume": 29076, "typical_volume": 25888.4, "trend": 9.581667, "fair_value": 10.038718, "relative_strength": -5.314921, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.339476, "energy": 9.675782, "activity_lines": [ 9.548, 9.483273, 9.421048, 9.457226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.9, "volume": 18998, "typical_volume": 25120.3, "trend": 9.578333, "fair_value": 10.052179, "relative_strength": -4.415205, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.362503, "energy": 26.499768, "activity_lines": [ 9.672, 9.572727, 9.469048, 9.477763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.6, "volume": 12612, "typical_volume": 21379.05, "trend": 9.553333, "fair_value": 10.062115, "relative_strength": -8.078042, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.567522, "energy": 25.064641, "activity_lines": [ 9.673333, 9.596727, 9.487429, 9.479161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.88, "volume": 15207, "typical_volume": 20324.7, "trend": 9.544333, "fair_value": 10.071603, "relative_strength": -6.625043, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.962756, "energy": 36.672462, "activity_lines": [ 9.76, 9.662545, 9.532286, 9.500237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }