{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b3db5f6-8574-4a73-ad2e-c1a94b3fca81", "symbol": "CNH", "name": "CNH Industrial N.V.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.276, "architecture_energy": 6.628, "architecture_maturity": 18.295, "architecture_confidence": 79.175, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.62, "rotation_up": 23.38, "upward_expansion": 30.67, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 31.47, "downward_expansion": 43.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.715333, 10.705091, 10.624332, 10.694615 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.91, "trend_reference": 10.858156, "distance_from_trend": 0.004775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.07064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.790653, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108618, "excess_performance": -0.234242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99844211, "relative_activity": 1.461123, "balance": 0.93927, "dry_up": 1.019714, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090564, "annualized_volatility": 0.371356, "from_high_reference": -0.172246, "from_low_reference": 0.224165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.858156, "fair_value_reference": 11.07064, "structural_low": 9.714293, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016262, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.00078, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.242846, "worst_return": -0.113177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028624, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.002104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.359629, "worst_return": -0.216653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052524, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.136684, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.156971, "worst_return": -0.231952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057216, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.208495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0254, "worst_return": -0.201097, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043021, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.179173, "volume": 21697650, "typical_volume": 29569012.2, "trend": 13.568785, "fair_value": 13.00018, "relative_strength": -15.390774, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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-9.443682, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.935359, "energy": 9.738168, "activity_lines": [ 10.645333, 10.606514, 10.564168, 10.698252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.15, "volume": 63755357, "typical_volume": 66842229.25, "trend": 10.797802, "fair_value": 11.101551, "relative_strength": -3.861662, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.584777, "energy": 11.688831, "activity_lines": [ 10.808667, 10.719273, 10.620289, 10.72485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 73705914, "typical_volume": 67020891.35, "trend": 10.830842, "fair_value": 11.083681, "relative_strength": -11.893402, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.305719, "energy": 14.489565, "activity_lines": [ 10.626, 10.653455, 10.590177, 10.689508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.91, "volume": 99844211, "typical_volume": 68333889.9, "trend": 10.858156, "fair_value": 11.07064, "relative_strength": -8.790653, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.276241, "energy": 6.627603, "activity_lines": [ 10.715333, 10.705091, 10.624332, 10.694615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }