{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b44a6b5-1b13-4562-ab89-f7ccbfb2ee28", "symbol": "PALAT", "name": "Amundi PEA MSCI Emerging Latin America Selection UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.359, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.705, "architecture_energy": 20.703, "architecture_maturity": 25.581, "architecture_confidence": 61.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.46, "rotation_up": 45.11, "upward_expansion": 72.09, "deceleration": 62.62, "rotation_down": 19.12, "downward_expansion": 3.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.973334, 27.8926, 27.819791, 27.800265 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.620001, "trend_reference": 27.730633, "distance_from_trend": -0.00399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.794733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.315263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009041, "excess_performance": -0.062353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003153, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44963, "relative_activity": 0.499823, "balance": 0.802106, "dry_up": 0.630684, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03144, "annualized_volatility": 0.199126, "from_high_reference": -0.079333, "from_low_reference": 0.330059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.730633, "fair_value_reference": 33.794733, "structural_low": 25.441, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.020779, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.019209, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.101415, "worst_return": -0.080909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045668, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023118, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.27044, "worst_return": -0.115106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050204, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.100338, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.319532, "worst_return": -0.161438, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 22.47033, "activity_lines": [ 27.884667, 27.652109, 27.748995, 27.706473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.24, "volume": 57918, "typical_volume": 93764.8, "trend": 27.5361, "fair_value": 33.719746, "relative_strength": 7.490354, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.794875, "energy": 31.190378, "activity_lines": [ 28.035, 27.7918, 27.800919, 27.760548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.195, "volume": 101399, "typical_volume": 92880.35, "trend": 27.6633, "fair_value": 33.757772, "relative_strength": 5.171775, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.395193, "energy": 37.922276, "activity_lines": [ 28.117334, 27.901891, 27.841433, 27.803058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.620001, "volume": 44963, "typical_volume": 89957.9, "trend": 27.730633, "fair_value": 33.794733, "relative_strength": 0.315263, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.705187, "energy": 20.702903, "activity_lines": [ 27.973334, 27.8926, 27.819791, 27.800265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }