{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2b485c7a-df9e-437d-acad-269ae2f25d0c", "symbol": "ECEL", "name": "Eurocell plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.509, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.075, "architecture_energy": 38.408, "architecture_maturity": 8.207, "architecture_confidence": 60.304, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.99, "rotation_up": 61.63, "upward_expansion": 48.31, "deceleration": 22.0, "rotation_down": 15.38, "downward_expansion": 20.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.133333, 113.681818, 110.91078, 111.883229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 118.0, "trend_reference": 114.831391, "distance_from_trend": 0.027594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 135.193651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127178, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.444018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.102344, "excess_performance": -0.15358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027594, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127178, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070163, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 608280, "relative_activity": 1.519991, "balance": 1.188755, "dry_up": 1.110686, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065437, "annualized_volatility": 0.308776, "from_high_reference": -0.245611, "from_low_reference": 0.191919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.831391, "fair_value_reference": 135.193651, "structural_low": 99.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.024044, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.035953, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.052174, "worst_return": -0.134921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.117897, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.159371, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.087719, "worst_return": -0.203125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.204337, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.231698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180126, "worst_return": -0.269325, 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"energy": 16.68327, "activity_lines": [ 109.7, 107.9, 108.866888, 112.334908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.0, "volume": 204464, "typical_volume": 396411.3, "trend": 116.392037, "fair_value": 135.087207, "relative_strength": -17.19056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.301816, "energy": 17.345065, "activity_lines": [ 109.733333, 108.327273, 108.608949, 111.816165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 113.0, "volume": 216308, "typical_volume": 380485.0, "trend": 115.826902, "fair_value": 135.084985, "relative_strength": -14.128941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.101567, "energy": 12.263871, "activity_lines": [ 111.133333, 109.345455, 108.819842, 111.597324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.0, "volume": 410766, "typical_volume": 390244.2, "trend": 115.495041, "fair_value": 135.092382, "relative_strength": -12.897392, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.008809, "energy": 11.245113, "activity_lines": [ 112.566667, 110.654545, 109.290045, 111.543975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.0, "volume": 542573, "typical_volume": 400804.0, "trend": 115.24652, "fair_value": 135.135015, "relative_strength": -10.965809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.606278, "energy": 18.96364, "activity_lines": [ 114.6, 112.290909, 110.098132, 111.705585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.0, "volume": 608280, "typical_volume": 400186.55, "trend": 114.831391, "fair_value": 135.193651, "relative_strength": -10.444018, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.075124, "energy": 38.408272, "activity_lines": [ 116.133333, 113.681818, 110.91078, 111.883229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }